Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 25/07, 01:00
Prediction: New York Red Bulls II vs Crown Legacy
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.82Total
New York Red Bulls II2.2
Crown Legacy1.62
1X2
New York Red Bulls II
Draw
Crown Legacy
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
New York Red Bulls II
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Crown Legacy
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New York Red Bulls II
1–2–2
Crown Legacy
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls II 1464 · Crown Legacy 1499
| New York Red Bulls II | Draw | Crown Legacy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| Market | 50% | 22% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Crown Legacy: 2-2-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New York Red Bulls II | Crown Legacy | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2 | 1.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.4 | 3 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls II 1–2–2 Crown Legacy
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 2-5 HT 2-2 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 26/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Crown Legacy |
| 10/09/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 1-1 HT 0-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 18/06/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 1-1 HT 0-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 10/04/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Crown Legacy |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Crown Legacy | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 27 | 37 |
| 3 | Orlando City II | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 40 | 33 | 35 |
| 4 | Chattanooga FC | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 30 | 34 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 29 | 32 |
| 6 | New England Revolution II | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 32 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 28 | 30 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 28 |
| 9 | CT United | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 32 | 28 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire II | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 27 | 27 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 26 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 36 | 25 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 35 | 25 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 32 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 34 | 14 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New York Red Bulls II | Crown Legacy |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire II | 0-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Philadelphia Union II | 5-0 W | 1-0 W |
| New England Revolution II | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Carolina Core FC | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| New York City FC II | 2-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: New York Red Bulls II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 06/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Crown Legacy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 28/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
4-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 04/05 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls II vs Crown Legacy?
According to our model, the most likely result is a New York Red Bulls II win (50%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls II 50%, draw 22%, Crown Legacy 28%.
How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls II vs Crown Legacy?
The model expects 3.82 goals (New York Red Bulls II 2.2 · Crown Legacy 1.62), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls II vs Crown Legacy?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.