Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 26/07, 01:00
Prediction: Chattanooga FC vs Philadelphia Union II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Chattanooga FC1.79
Philadelphia Union II1.07
1X2
Chattanooga FC
Draw
Philadelphia Union II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chattanooga FC
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Philadelphia Union II
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chattanooga FC
0–2–1
Philadelphia Union II
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chattanooga FC 1541 · Philadelphia Union II 1479
| Chattanooga FC | Draw | Philadelphia Union II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chattanooga FC (rating 1541 vs 1479).
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chattanooga FC | Philadelphia Union II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.4 | 1.2 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chattanooga FC 0–2–1 Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Chattanooga FC |
| 04/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chattanooga FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 12/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Chattanooga FC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Crown Legacy | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 27 | 37 |
| 3 | Orlando City II | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 40 | 33 | 35 |
| 4 | Chattanooga FC | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 30 | 34 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 29 | 32 |
| 6 | New England Revolution II | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 32 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 28 | 30 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 28 |
| 9 | CT United | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 32 | 28 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire II | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 27 | 27 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 26 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 36 | 25 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 35 | 25 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 32 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 34 | 14 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chattanooga FC | Philadelphia Union II |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando City II | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| New York City FC II | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Atlanta United II | 4-4 D | 2-1 W |
| New York Red Bulls II | 4-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chattanooga FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 12/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 05/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 22/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 14/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-4 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-5 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 18/05 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 12/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 29/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 22/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 30/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chattanooga FC vs Philadelphia Union II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chattanooga FC win (54%). Probabilities: Chattanooga FC 54%, draw 24%, Philadelphia Union II 22%.
How many goals are expected in Chattanooga FC vs Philadelphia Union II?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Chattanooga FC 1.79 · Philadelphia Union II 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Chattanooga FC vs Philadelphia Union II?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.