Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 26/07, 01:30
Prediction: Carolina Core FC vs Chicago Fire II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Carolina Core FC1.58
Chicago Fire II1.36
1X2
Carolina Core FC
Draw
Chicago Fire II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Carolina Core FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Chicago Fire II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carolina Core FC
1–2–1
Chicago Fire II
(4 last)
- Carolina Core FC2-1Chicago Fire II
- Chicago Fire II0-0Carolina Core FC
- Carolina Core FC1-1Chicago Fire II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carolina Core FC 1501 · Chicago Fire II 1524
| Carolina Core FC | Draw | Chicago Fire II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carolina Core FC | Chicago Fire II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 1.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.7 | 1.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carolina Core FC 1–2–1 Chicago Fire II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Carolina Core FC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Chicago Fire II |
| 22/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Carolina Core FC |
| 15/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Carolina Core FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Chicago Fire II |
| 23/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Carolina Core FC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Crown Legacy | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 27 | 37 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 20 | 35 |
| 4 | Orlando City II | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 40 | 33 | 35 |
| 5 | Chattanooga FC | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 30 | 34 |
| 6 | New York Red Bulls II | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 29 | 32 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 28 | 30 |
| 8 | CT United | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 32 | 28 |
| 9 | New York City FC II | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 26 | 28 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire II | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 27 | 27 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 26 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 36 | 25 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 35 | 25 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 32 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 34 | 14 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 17 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 45 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carolina Core FC | Chicago Fire II |
|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami CF II | 4-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Chattanooga FC | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Huntsville City | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Crown Legacy | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| New York Red Bulls II | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Carolina Core FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carolina Core FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 06/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 08/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
Chicago Fire II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 06/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 14 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carolina Core FC vs Chicago Fire II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carolina Core FC win (42%). Probabilities: Carolina Core FC 42%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire II 33%.
How many goals are expected in Carolina Core FC vs Chicago Fire II?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Carolina Core FC 1.58 · Chicago Fire II 1.36), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Carolina Core FC vs Chicago Fire II?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.