Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 18/07, 23:30

Prediction: Crown Legacy vs Chicago Fire II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

Crown Legacy1.99

Chicago Fire II1.62

1X2

46% 23% 31%

Crown Legacy Draw Chicago Fire II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Crown Legacy 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWDWLDDL

Chicago Fire II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWDDW

Head-to-head

Crown Legacy 3–1–2 Chicago Fire II (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crown Legacy 1487 · Chicago Fire II 1534

	Crown Legacy	Draw	Chicago Fire II
Our model	46%	23%	31%
Market	46%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chicago Fire II (rating 1487 vs 1534).
H2H favours Crown Legacy: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crown Legacy	Chicago Fire II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.9	1.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.7	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.80

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.92
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.55 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +7’	1.95	3.80	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:20	1.80	3.92	3.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Crown Legacy 3–1–2 Chicago Fire II

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Chicago Fire II	3-2 HT 2-1	Crown Legacy
01/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Chicago Fire II	1-1 HT 0-0	Crown Legacy
30/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	Crown Legacy	5-1 HT 2-1	Chicago Fire II
11/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	Chicago Fire II	2-0 HT 1-0	Crown Legacy
25/06/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	Crown Legacy	4-2 HT 1-1	Chicago Fire II
29/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	Chicago Fire II	0-1 HT 0-1	Crown Legacy

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Columbus Crew II	18	9	5	4	33	29	36
2	Crown Legacy	17	8	6	3	41	25	34
3	Orlando City II	18	8	6	4	39	32	33
4	Chattanooga FC	18	8	5	5	34	29	33
5	New York Red Bulls II	18	9	4	5	39	27	32
6	New England Revolution II	17	8	5	4	23	20	32
7	Atlanta United II	17	9	3	5	38	26	30
8	New York City FC II	16	8	3	5	27	23	28
9	Chicago Fire II	17	6	6	5	27	24	27
10	Philadelphia Union II	18	7	3	8	21	21	26
11	CT United	17	7	2	8	31	31	25
12	Toronto FC II	18	6	3	9	27	35	22
13	Huntsville City	17	5	5	7	29	35	22
14	Carolina Core FC	19	3	7	9	22	32	18
15	FC Cincinnati II	17	4	1	12	16	31	14
16	Inter Miami CF II	16	0	4	12	14	41	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crown Legacy	Chicago Fire II
New York City FC II	0-3 L	1-2 L
Atlanta United II	3-3 D	0-3 L
Carolina Core FC	0-2 L	1-2 L
New England Revolution II	2-2 D	2-1 W
Inter Miami CF II	5-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crown Legacy

DDLWDWLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-3	0-3	9	4	L
06/07	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
28/06	Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-2	3-3	3	3	D
14/06	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
06/06	Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
23/05	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	2-2	13	4	D
18/05	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	4-0	5-1	4	7	W
10/05	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	2-3	0	0	L
04/05	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
26/04	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	12	6	D

Chicago Fire II

LWLWLWWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
06/07	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	5	1	D
28/06	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
21/06	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
14/06	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
07/06	Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-3	5	5	L
23/05	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	4-0	3	4	W
17/05	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-2	14	5	L
10/05	Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	3-2	0	0	W
06/05	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crown Legacy vs Chicago Fire II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Crown Legacy win (46%). Probabilities: Crown Legacy 46%, draw 23%, Chicago Fire II 31%.

How many goals are expected in Crown Legacy vs Chicago Fire II?

The model expects 3.61 goals (Crown Legacy 1.99 · Chicago Fire II 1.62), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Crown Legacy vs Chicago Fire II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.