Football · Chile Primera B · 26/07, 23:30
Prediction: San Marcos De Arica vs Magallanes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
San Marcos De Arica1.61
Magallanes1.15
1X2
San Marcos De Arica
Draw
Magallanes
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
San Marcos De Arica
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Magallanes
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Marcos De Arica
2–2–2
Magallanes
(6 last)
- Magallanes1-1San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica2-2Magallanes
- Magallanes0-1San Marcos De Arica
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Marcos De Arica 1469 · Magallanes 1436
| San Marcos De Arica | Draw | Magallanes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Marcos De Arica | Magallanes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.3 | 2.4 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.1 | 5.4 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Marcos De Arica 2–2–2 Magallanes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/26 Chile Primera B | Magallanes | 1-1 HT 0-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 29/07/25 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Magallanes |
| 07/03/25 Chile Primera B | Magallanes | 0-1 HT 0-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 31/08/24 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Magallanes |
| 20/04/24 Chile Primera B | Magallanes | 0-2 HT 0-2 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 22/08/21 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Magallanes |
Standings · Chile Primera B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Wanderers | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 18 | 29 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 17 | 29 |
| 3 | San Marcos De Arica | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 25 |
| 4 | Deportes Temuco | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | CD Antofagasta | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 23 |
| 6 | San Luis Quillota | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 23 |
| 7 | Puerto Montt | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 23 |
| 8 | Union Espanola | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 9 | Deportes Recoleta | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 22 |
| 10 | Magallanes | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 22 |
| 11 | Deportes Copiapo | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 22 |
| 12 | Curico Unido | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 24 | 18 |
| 13 | Deportes Iquique | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 23 | 16 |
| 14 | Union San Felipe | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 29 | 16 |
| 15 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 12 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 28 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Marcos De Arica | Magallanes |
|---|---|---|
| San Luis Quillota | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Puerto Montt | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| CD Antofagasta | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Deportes Recoleta | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Deportes Copiapo | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: San Marcos De Arica (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Marcos De Arica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Deportes Limache Chile Cup |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 27/06 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Deportes Limache Chile Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 05/05 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Magallanes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Audax Italiano Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | Palestino Chile Cup |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 27/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 20/06 | Palestino Chile Cup |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 03/05 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Marcos De Arica vs Magallanes?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Marcos De Arica win (47%). Probabilities: San Marcos De Arica 47%, draw 27%, Magallanes 26%.
How many goals are expected in San Marcos De Arica vs Magallanes?
The model expects 2.76 goals (San Marcos De Arica 1.61 · Magallanes 1.15), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in San Marcos De Arica vs Magallanes?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.