Football · Chile Primera B · 01/08, 02:30

Prediction: San Marcos De Arica vs Deportes Iquique

Team pages: San Marcos De Arica · Deportes Iquique

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

San Marcos De Arica1.49

Deportes Iquique0.88

1X2

51% 27% 22%

San Marcos De Arica Draw Deportes Iquique

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

San Marcos De Arica 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLLLLW

Deportes Iquique 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDLDLWDW

Head-to-head

San Marcos De Arica 1–2–3 Deportes Iquique (6 last)

Deportes Iquique0-0San Marcos De Arica
San Marcos De Arica0-0Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquique4-0San Marcos De Arica
Deportes Iquique2-1San Marcos De Arica
Deportes Iquique0-4San Marcos De Arica
San Marcos De Arica2-3Deportes Iquique

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Marcos De Arica 1457 · Deportes Iquique 1504

	San Marcos De Arica	Draw	Deportes Iquique
Our model	50%	29%	21%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Iquique (rating 1457 vs 1504).
H2H favours Deportes Iquique: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Marcos De Arica	Deportes Iquique
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.91 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +6’	1.73	3.40	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:21	1.91	3.35	3.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Marcos De Arica 1–2–3 Deportes Iquique

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Chile Primera B	Deportes Iquique	0-0 HT 0-0	San Marcos De Arica
08/02/26 Chile Cup	San Marcos De Arica	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportes Iquique
01/02/26 Chile Cup	Deportes Iquique	4-0 HT 1-0	San Marcos De Arica
08/07/23 Chile Primera B	Deportes Iquique	2-1 HT 2-1	San Marcos De Arica
26/06/23 Chile Cup	Deportes Iquique	0-4 HT 0-0	San Marcos De Arica
18/02/23 Chile Primera B	San Marcos De Arica	2-3 HT 1-2	Deportes Iquique

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cobreloa	16	9	5	2	34	19	32
2	Santiago Wanderers	16	8	5	3	31	18	29
3	San Marcos De Arica	16	7	7	2	21	11	28
4	San Luis Quillota	16	7	5	4	26	22	26
5	Puerto Montt	16	8	2	6	20	18	26
6	Union Espanola	16	7	4	5	23	20	25
7	Deportes Temuco	16	6	5	5	26	19	23
8	CD Antofagasta	16	6	5	5	24	19	23
9	Deportes Copiapo	16	6	5	5	21	23	23
10	Deportes Recoleta	16	6	4	6	25	26	22
11	Magallanes	16	6	4	6	24	26	22
12	Curico Unido	16	4	6	6	17	26	18
13	Deportes Iquique	16	3	7	6	20	23	16
14	Union San Felipe	16	4	4	8	13	29	16
15	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	16	2	6	8	21	30	12
16	Rangers de Talca	16	0	4	12	11	28	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Marcos De Arica	Deportes Iquique
Magallanes	2-0 W	3-4 L
Deportes Limache	1-4 L	4-1 W
Coquimbo Unido	0-1 L	1-1 D
Deportes Temuco	0-1 L	1-0 W
Curico Unido	2-2 D	1-1 D
Deportes Recoleta	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deportes Iquique (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

San Marcos De Arica

WDDWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Magallanes Chile Primera B	1-0	2-0	6	12	W
06/07	Deportes Limache Chile Cup	1-1	1-4	7	8	L
27/06	Coquimbo Unido Chile Cup	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
20/06	Deportes Limache Chile Cup	1-1	1-3	8	7	L
06/06	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
31/05	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
24/05	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	2-0	2-0	0	4	W
17/05	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/05	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	0-1	2-2	4	7	D
05/05	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	9	3	W

Deportes Iquique

DDLDLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
05/07	Coquimbo Unido Chile Cup	0-0	1-1	5	0	D
27/06	Deportes Limache Chile Cup	2-0	4-1	5	2	W
20/06	Coquimbo Unido Chile Cup	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
07/06	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/05	Magallanes Chile Primera B	0-2	3-4	6	4	L
23/05	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	12	2	D
19/05	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
09/05	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
02/05	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	1-2	2-2	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Marcos De Arica vs Deportes Iquique?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Marcos De Arica win (51%). Probabilities: San Marcos De Arica 51%, draw 27%, Deportes Iquique 22%.

How many goals are expected in San Marcos De Arica vs Deportes Iquique?

The model expects 2.36 goals (San Marcos De Arica 1.49 · Deportes Iquique 0.88), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in San Marcos De Arica vs Deportes Iquique?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.