Football · Chile Primera B · 29/08, 18:30

Prediction: Union San Felipe vs Club Deportes Santa Cruz

Team pages: Union San Felipe · Club Deportes Santa Cruz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

Union San Felipe1.2

Club Deportes Santa Cruz1.03

1X2

40% 29% 31%

Union San Felipe Draw Club Deportes Santa Cruz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Union San Felipe 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLDWLL

Club Deportes Santa Cruz 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLDWLL

Head-to-head

Union San Felipe 2–4–0 Club Deportes Santa Cruz (6 last)

Club Deportes Santa Cruz1-3Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe0-0Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Club Deportes Santa Cruz1-1Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe1-1Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Club Deportes Santa Cruz0-2Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe0-0Club Deportes Santa Cruz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union San Felipe 1467 · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1465

	Union San Felipe	Draw	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Our model	39%	31%	30%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union San Felipe: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union San Felipe	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.8	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	3.1 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:51 +26’	2.20	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union San Felipe 2–4–0 Club Deportes Santa Cruz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	1-3 HT 1-1	Union San Felipe
12/10/25 Chile Primera B	Union San Felipe	0-0 HT 0-0	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
01/06/25 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	1-1 HT 0-1	Union San Felipe
03/08/24 Chile Primera B	Union San Felipe	1-1 HT 0-0	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
23/03/24 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	0-2 HT 0-1	Union San Felipe
10/09/23 Chile Primera B	Union San Felipe	0-0 HT 0-0	Club Deportes Santa Cruz

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santiago Wanderers	21	10	8	3	37	21	38
2	Cobreloa	21	10	8	3	38	23	38
3	Magallanes	21	10	5	6	37	35	35
4	CD Antofagasta	21	9	7	5	36	22	34
5	Union Espanola	21	10	4	7	29	27	34
6	San Luis Quillota	21	8	8	5	31	26	32
7	Puerto Montt	21	9	4	8	22	24	31
8	San Marcos De Arica	21	7	9	5	25	18	30
9	Deportes Recoleta	21	8	6	7	32	31	30
10	Deportes Copiapo	21	8	6	7	31	31	30
11	Deportes Iquique	21	5	10	6	31	26	25
12	Deportes Temuco	21	6	7	8	33	32	25
13	Curico Unido	21	5	8	8	20	32	20
14	Union San Felipe	21	5	5	11	15	37	20
15	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	21	3	7	11	24	37	16
16	Rangers de Talca	21	1	6	14	18	37	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union San Felipe	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Curico Unido	0-2 L	2-1 W
Cobreloa	0-1 L	2-4 L
CD Antofagasta	1-5 L	1-1 D
Santiago Wanderers	0-2 L	1-3 L
Puerto Montt	1-0 W	0-0 D
Deportes Temuco	0-5 L	2-3 L
Rangers de Talca	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Club Deportes Santa Cruz (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union San Felipe

WLWDLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
16/08	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
13/08	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
08/08	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
01/08	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-2	1-5	4	0	L
25/07	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
09/06	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
30/05	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
24/05	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	0-2	0-5	2	1	L
16/05	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W

Club Deportes Santa Cruz

LDDWLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Magallanes Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
18/08	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
14/08	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
08/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
02/08	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-1	1-3	6	6	L
25/07	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	1-2	2-4	11	4	L
07/06	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
02/06	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
24/05	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
19/05	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	2-2	2-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union San Felipe vs Club Deportes Santa Cruz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union San Felipe win (40%). Probabilities: Union San Felipe 40%, draw 29%, Club Deportes Santa Cruz 31%.

How many goals are expected in Union San Felipe vs Club Deportes Santa Cruz?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Union San Felipe 1.2 · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1.03), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Union San Felipe vs Club Deportes Santa Cruz?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.