Football · Chile Primera B · 05/09, 02:30
Prediction: Puerto Montt vs Curico Unido
Team pages: Puerto Montt · Curico Unido
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.24Total
Puerto Montt1.23
Curico Unido1.01
1X2
Puerto Montt
Draw
Curico Unido
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Puerto Montt
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Curico Unido
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Puerto Montt
1–1–3
Curico Unido
(5 last)
- Curico Unido2-1Puerto Montt
- Curico Unido0-0Puerto Montt
- Puerto Montt0-2Curico Unido
- Puerto Montt2-1Curico Unido
- Curico Unido3-0Puerto Montt
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Puerto Montt 1455 · Curico Unido 1508
| Puerto Montt | Draw | Curico Unido | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Curico Unido (rating 1455 vs 1508).
- H2H favours Curico Unido: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Puerto Montt | Curico Unido | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.5 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.4 | 2.6 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.5 | 4.7 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Puerto Montt 1–1–3 Curico Unido
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Chile Primera B | Curico Unido | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Puerto Montt |
| 22/01/17 Chile Primera B | Curico Unido | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Puerto Montt |
| 05/11/16 Chile Primera B | Puerto Montt | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Curico Unido |
| 23/04/16 Chile Primera B | Puerto Montt | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Curico Unido |
| 22/11/15 Chile Primera B | Curico Unido | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Puerto Montt |
Standings · Chile Primera B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 40 | 23 | 41 |
| 2 | Santiago Wanderers | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 39 | 22 | 41 |
| 3 | CD Antofagasta | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 37 |
| 4 | San Luis Quillota | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 32 | 26 | 35 |
| 5 | Magallanes | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 37 | 35 |
| 6 | Union Espanola | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 28 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportes Recoleta | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 31 |
| 8 | Puerto Montt | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 31 |
| 9 | San Marcos De Arica | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 30 |
| 10 | Deportes Copiapo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 31 | 35 | 30 |
| 11 | Deportes Temuco | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 33 | 28 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 27 | 25 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 32 | 21 |
| 14 | Union San Felipe | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 37 | 21 |
| 15 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 37 | 17 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 37 | 12 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Puerto Montt | Curico Unido |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Temuco | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Deportes Iquique | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Deportes Recoleta | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| CD Antofagasta | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Cobreloa | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Union San Felipe | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Curico Unido (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Puerto Montt
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 16/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 12/08 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Curico Unido
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 24/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/08 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 14/08 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 01/08 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 25/07 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/06 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 02/06 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Puerto Montt vs Curico Unido?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Puerto Montt win (41%). Probabilities: Puerto Montt 41%, draw 29%, Curico Unido 30%.
How many goals are expected in Puerto Montt vs Curico Unido?
The model expects 2.24 goals (Puerto Montt 1.23 · Curico Unido 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Puerto Montt vs Curico Unido?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.