Football · Chile Primera B · 12/08, 01:00
Prediction: Puerto Montt vs Union Espanola
Team pages: Puerto Montt · Union Espanola
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
Puerto Montt1.4
Union Espanola1.15
1X2
Puerto Montt
Draw
Union Espanola
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Puerto Montt
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Union Espanola
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Puerto Montt
1–2
Union Espanola
(3 last)
- Union Espanola2-1Puerto Montt
- Union Espanola2-3Puerto Montt
- Puerto Montt0-2Union Espanola
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Puerto Montt 1523 · Union Espanola 1457
| Puerto Montt | Draw | Union Espanola | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Puerto Montt (rating 1523 vs 1457).
- H2H favours Union Espanola: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Puerto Montt | Union Espanola | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.6 | 2.7 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Puerto Montt 1–0–2 Union Espanola
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Chile Primera B | Union Espanola | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Puerto Montt |
| 27/06/21 Chile Cup | Union Espanola | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Puerto Montt |
| 23/06/21 Chile Cup | Puerto Montt | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Union Espanola |
Standings · Chile Primera B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 35 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Santiago Wanderers | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 20 | 33 |
| 3 | San Marcos De Arica | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 23 | 13 | 30 |
| 4 | Puerto Montt | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | CD Antofagasta | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 29 |
| 6 | San Luis Quillota | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 28 |
| 7 | Magallanes | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 31 | 28 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 25 | 27 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 26 | 25 |
| 10 | Deportes Temuco | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 27 | 23 |
| 11 | Deportes Recoleta | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 27 | 23 |
| 12 | Curico Unido | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 26 | 20 |
| 13 | Deportes Iquique | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 22 | 25 | 18 |
| 14 | Union San Felipe | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 17 |
| 15 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 33 | 13 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 18 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 29 | 6 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Puerto Montt | Union Espanola |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Recoleta | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| CD Antofagasta | 3-2 W | 0-3 L |
| Union San Felipe | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Puerto Montt
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | Huachipato Chile Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 29/06 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Huachipato Chile Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Union Espanola
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 28/07 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | O'Higgins Chile Cup |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 30/06 | Colo Colo Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/06 | O'Higgins Chile Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 09/06 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 26/05 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
1-3 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/05 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Puerto Montt vs Union Espanola?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Puerto Montt win (42%). Probabilities: Puerto Montt 42%, draw 27%, Union Espanola 31%.
How many goals are expected in Puerto Montt vs Union Espanola?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Puerto Montt 1.4 · Union Espanola 1.15), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Puerto Montt vs Union Espanola?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.