Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 18/07, 07:00

Prediction: Adelaide City vs Croydon FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Adelaide City1.96

Croydon FC1.12

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Adelaide City Draw Croydon FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Adelaide City 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Croydon FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Adelaide City 3–3–0 Croydon FC (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Adelaide City 1579 · Croydon FC 1537

	Adelaide City	Draw	Croydon FC
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide City (rating 1579 vs 1537).
H2H favours Adelaide City: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Adelaide City	Croydon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.6	2.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	2 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide City 3–3–0 Croydon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Australia South Australia Premier League	Croydon FC	0-4 HT 0-2	Adelaide City
06/09/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide City	0-0 HT 0-0	Croydon FC
30/08/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Croydon FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Adelaide City
19/07/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Croydon FC	2-2 HT 0-0	Adelaide City
25/04/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide City	2-1 HT 2-0	Croydon FC
07/02/25 Australia Friendlies	Croydon FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Adelaide City

Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metrostars	17	11	4	2	48	18	37
2	Adelaide City	17	10	5	2	33	14	35
3	West Torrens Birkalla	17	11	2	4	35	24	35
4	White City FK Beograd	17	9	3	5	31	19	30
5	Croydon FC	17	8	3	6	38	30	27
6	Playford	17	7	5	5	35	26	26
7	Adelaide United NPL	17	5	7	5	22	24	22
8	Sturt Lions	17	7	0	10	30	30	21
9	Campbelltown City	17	5	4	8	27	29	19
10	West Adelaide	17	4	6	7	33	34	18
11	Adelaide Comets	17	3	4	10	19	34	13
12	Para Hills Knights	17	0	1	16	7	76	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Adelaide City	Croydon FC
Para Hills Knights	2-0 W	5-1 W
Adelaide Comets	1-0 W	4-1 W
Metrostars	3-0 W	2-3 L
Adelaide United NPL	0-0 D	3-0 W
Sturt Lions	4-1 W	2-0 W
West Adelaide	2-1 W	5-5 D
White City FK Beograd	2-2 D	0-2 L
Playford	0-0 D	4-1 W
Campbelltown City	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Adelaide City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
26/06	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
20/06	Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	3-0	3	0	W
13/06	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
05/06	Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	4-1	7	8	W
31/05	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	2-1	8	5	W
23/05	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	2-2	3	9	D
16/05	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/05	Cumberland United Australia Cup Qualifying	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
09/05	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	2-1	9	8	W

Croydon FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	4-1	2	0	W
26/06	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
20/06	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	1-4	5-5	3	1	D
13/06	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	4-1	8	3	W
05/06	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
30/05	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
23/05	Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	2-3	2	4	L
16/05	Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
09/05	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	0-2	0-2	8	1	L
01/05	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Adelaide City vs Croydon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Adelaide City win (56%). Probabilities: Adelaide City 56%, draw 23%, Croydon FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Adelaide City vs Croydon FC?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Adelaide City 1.96 · Croydon FC 1.12), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Adelaide City vs Croydon FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.