Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 25/07, 07:30

Prediction: Adelaide United NPL vs Sturt Lions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Adelaide United NPL1.59

Sturt Lions1.26

1X2

45% 26% 30%

Adelaide United NPL Draw Sturt Lions

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Adelaide United NPL 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Sturt Lions 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWLWD

Head-to-head

Adelaide United NPL 2–1–3 Sturt Lions (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Adelaide United NPL 1512 · Sturt Lions 1459

	Adelaide United NPL	Draw	Sturt Lions
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide United NPL (rating 1512 vs 1459).
H2H favours Sturt Lions: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Adelaide United NPL	Sturt Lions
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.7	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.00▲	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:04 +6’	1.95	3.60	3.10
11:02 +5’	2.00▲	3.60	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide United NPL 2–1–3 Sturt Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia South Australia Premier League	Sturt Lions	2-3 HT 1-2	Adelaide United NPL
11/06/23 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide United NPL	1-4 HT 1-2	Sturt Lions
25/03/23 Australia South Australia Premier League	Sturt Lions	1-4 HT 1-2	Adelaide United NPL
28/05/22 Australia South Australia Premier League	Sturt Lions	1-1 HT 1-0	Adelaide United NPL
19/02/22 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide United NPL	1-3 HT 0-2	Sturt Lions
14/08/21 Australia South Australia Premier League	Sturt Lions	2-1 HT 0-1	Adelaide United NPL

Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	West Torrens Birkalla	18	12	2	4	46	24	38
2	Metrostars	18	11	4	3	48	19	37
3	Adelaide City	18	10	6	2	35	16	36
4	White City FK Beograd	18	9	3	6	31	21	30
5	Playford	18	8	5	5	36	26	29
6	Croydon FC	18	8	4	6	40	32	28
7	Adelaide United NPL	18	6	7	5	24	24	25
8	Sturt Lions	18	7	1	10	30	30	22
9	Campbelltown City	18	6	4	8	28	29	22
10	West Adelaide	18	4	7	7	33	34	19
11	Adelaide Comets	18	3	4	11	19	35	13
12	Para Hills Knights	18	0	1	17	7	87	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Adelaide United NPL	Sturt Lions
White City FK Beograd	2-0 W	2-1 W
Campbelltown City	0-0 D	0-2 L
Croydon FC	0-3 L	0-2 L
Adelaide Comets	1-1 D	1-2 L
Adelaide City	0-0 D	1-4 L
West Adelaide	1-3 L	0-0 D
Playford	0-0 D	1-0 W
West Torrens Birkalla	3-0 W	1-4 L
Para Hills Knights	2-0 W	6-0 W
Metrostars	1-6 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Adelaide United NPL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
04/07	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
26/06	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-3	13	0	L
20/06	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
13/06	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
07/06	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	1-2	1-3	5	1	L
30/05	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/05	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	3-0	2	3	W
16/05	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
09/05	Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League	1-4	1-6	5	2	L

Sturt Lions

LLLWLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
04/07	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/06	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
20/06	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	4-0	6-0	11	1	W
13/06	Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
05/06	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	8	L
30/05	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
23/05	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
16/05	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
08/05	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Adelaide United NPL vs Sturt Lions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Adelaide United NPL win (45%). Probabilities: Adelaide United NPL 45%, draw 26%, Sturt Lions 30%.

How many goals are expected in Adelaide United NPL vs Sturt Lions?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Adelaide United NPL 1.59 · Sturt Lions 1.26), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Adelaide United NPL vs Sturt Lions?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.