Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 25/07, 11:45

Prediction: Metrostars vs West Adelaide

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

Metrostars2.7

West Adelaide1.15

1X2

69% 18% 13%

Metrostars Draw West Adelaide

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Metrostars 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWLWWL

West Adelaide 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLDDLD

Head-to-head

Metrostars 5–1–0 West Adelaide (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metrostars 1564 · West Adelaide 1481

	Metrostars	Draw	West Adelaide
Our model	69%	17%	13%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metrostars (rating 1564 vs 1481).
H2H favours Metrostars: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metrostars	West Adelaide
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:10 +1’	1.30	5.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metrostars 5–1–0 West Adelaide

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia South Australia Premier League	West Adelaide	3-3 HT 1-1	Metrostars
10/06/23 Australia South Australia Premier League	West Adelaide	2-3 HT 2-1	Metrostars
25/03/23 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	2-0 HT 1-0	West Adelaide
24/01/20 Australia Friendlies	Metrostars	7-0 HT 4-0	West Adelaide
17/08/19 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	4-0 HT 4-0	West Adelaide
11/05/19 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	4-1 HT 1-1	West Adelaide

Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	West Torrens Birkalla	18	12	2	4	46	24	38
2	Metrostars	18	11	4	3	48	19	37
3	Adelaide City	18	10	6	2	35	16	36
4	White City FK Beograd	18	9	3	6	31	21	30
5	Playford	18	8	5	5	36	26	29
6	Croydon FC	18	8	4	6	40	32	28
7	Adelaide United NPL	18	6	7	5	24	24	25
8	Sturt Lions	18	7	1	10	30	30	22
9	Campbelltown City	18	6	4	8	28	29	22
10	West Adelaide	18	4	7	7	33	34	19
11	Adelaide Comets	18	3	4	11	19	35	13
12	Para Hills Knights	18	0	1	17	7	87	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metrostars	West Adelaide
Playford	0-1 L	4-1 W
West Torrens Birkalla	3-1 W	1-2 L
Para Hills Knights	9-0 W	1-1 D
Adelaide City	0-3 L	1-2 L
Sturt Lions	1-0 W	0-0 D
White City FK Beograd	2-1 W	0-1 L
Campbelltown City	4-0 W	0-0 D
Croydon FC	3-2 W	5-5 D
Adelaide Comets	0-0 D	2-3 L
Adelaide United NPL	6-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Metrostars (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metrostars

WDWWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
04/07	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
27/06	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	4-0	9-0	8	0	W
20/06	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-2	0-3	5	0	L
13/06	Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
06/06	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	8	W
30/05	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
23/05	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
16/05	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
09/05	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	4-1	6-1	7	2	W

West Adelaide

DLWLWLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
04/07	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
27/06	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
20/06	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	4-1	5-5	3	1	D
12/06	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
07/06	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
31/05	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
23/05	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	4-1	11	2	W
16/05	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
09/05	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metrostars vs West Adelaide?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metrostars win (69%). Probabilities: Metrostars 69%, draw 18%, West Adelaide 13%.

How many goals are expected in Metrostars vs West Adelaide?

The model expects 3.85 goals (Metrostars 2.7 · West Adelaide 1.15), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Metrostars vs West Adelaide?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.