Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 18/07, 07:30
Prediction: West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.95Total
West Adelaide1.85
Sturt Lions2.1
1X2
West Adelaide
Draw
Sturt Lions
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
West Adelaide
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Sturt Lions
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
West Adelaide
1–2–3
Sturt Lions
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · West Adelaide 1478 · Sturt Lions 1463
| West Adelaide | Draw | Sturt Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 22% | 44% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sturt Lions: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| West Adelaide | Sturt Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.5 | 1.9 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · West Adelaide 1–2–3 Sturt Lions
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Australia South Australia Premier League | Sturt Lions | 4-3 HT 3-0 | West Adelaide |
| 13/09/25 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Sturt Lions | 2-2 HT 1-1 | West Adelaide |
| 05/07/25 Australia South Australia State League 1 | West Adelaide | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sturt Lions |
| 12/04/25 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Sturt Lions | 3-2 HT 2-2 | West Adelaide |
| 13/07/24 Australia South Australia State League 1 | West Adelaide | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sturt Lions |
| 20/04/24 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Sturt Lions | 1-0 HT 1-0 | West Adelaide |
Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metrostars | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 48 | 18 | 37 |
| 2 | Adelaide City | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 33 | 14 | 35 |
| 3 | West Torrens Birkalla | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 24 | 35 |
| 4 | White City FK Beograd | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 19 | 30 |
| 5 | Croydon FC | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 27 |
| 6 | Playford | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 26 | 26 |
| 7 | Adelaide United NPL | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 24 | 22 |
| 8 | Sturt Lions | 17 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 21 |
| 9 | Campbelltown City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 19 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 34 | 18 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 34 | 13 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 17 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | West Adelaide | Sturt Lions |
|---|---|---|
| White City FK Beograd | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Campbelltown City | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Croydon FC | 5-5 D | 0-2 L |
| Adelaide Comets | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Adelaide United NPL | 3-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Adelaide City | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Playford | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| West Torrens Birkalla | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Para Hills Knights | 1-1 D | 6-0 W |
| Metrostars | 3-3 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 4 L | 3 W 0 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: West Adelaide (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
West Adelaide
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League |
4-1 | 5-5 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 12/06 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 5 | D |
Sturt Lions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/06 | West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League |
4-0 | 6-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/06 | Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sturt Lions win (43%). Probabilities: West Adelaide 34%, draw 23%, Sturt Lions 43%.
How many goals are expected in West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions?
The model expects 3.95 goals (West Adelaide 1.85 · Sturt Lions 2.1), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.