Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 01/08, 07:30

Prediction: Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets

Team pages: Sturt Lions · Adelaide Comets

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Sturt Lions1.79

Adelaide Comets1.15

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Sturt Lions Draw Adelaide Comets

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sturt Lions 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWDW

Adelaide Comets 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDWDLLLW

Head-to-head

Sturt Lions 1–2–3 Adelaide Comets (6 last)

Adelaide Comets2-1Sturt Lions
Sturt Lions2-0Adelaide Comets
Adelaide Comets0-0Sturt Lions
Sturt Lions1-4Adelaide Comets
Adelaide Comets2-0Sturt Lions
Adelaide Comets0-0Sturt Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sturt Lions 1486 · Adelaide Comets 1490

	Sturt Lions	Draw	Adelaide Comets
Our model	51%	25%	23%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Adelaide Comets: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sturt Lions	Adelaide Comets
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:06 +8’	1.73	3.80	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sturt Lions 1–2–3 Adelaide Comets

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide Comets	2-1 HT 1-1	Sturt Lions
08/07/23 Australia South Australia Premier League	Sturt Lions	2-0 HT 1-0	Adelaide Comets
22/04/23 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide Comets	0-0 HT 0-0	Sturt Lions
11/06/22 Australia South Australia Premier League	Sturt Lions	1-4 HT 1-2	Adelaide Comets
04/03/22 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide Comets	2-0 HT 2-0	Sturt Lions
15/10/21 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide Comets	0-0 HT 0-0	Sturt Lions

Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide City	19	11	6	2	36	16	39
2	West Torrens Birkalla	19	12	2	5	46	25	38
3	Metrostars	19	11	4	4	49	22	37
4	Playford	19	9	5	5	40	28	32
5	White City FK Beograd	19	9	3	7	31	22	30
6	Croydon FC	19	8	5	6	42	34	29
7	Sturt Lions	19	8	1	10	33	32	25
8	Adelaide United NPL	19	6	7	6	26	27	25
9	Campbelltown City	19	6	5	8	30	31	23
10	West Adelaide	19	5	7	7	36	35	22
11	Adelaide Comets	19	4	4	11	20	35	16
12	Para Hills Knights	19	0	1	18	9	91	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sturt Lions	Adelaide Comets
Adelaide United NPL	3-2 W	1-1 D
West Adelaide	0-0 D	3-2 W
Playford	1-0 W	2-2 D
West Torrens Birkalla	1-4 L	1-4 L
Para Hills Knights	6-0 W	4-0 W
Metrostars	0-1 L	0-0 D
Adelaide City	1-4 L	0-1 L
White City FK Beograd	2-1 W	1-0 W
Campbelltown City	0-2 L	0-1 L
Croydon FC	0-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 3 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sturt Lions

LLWLLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	3-2	0	2	W
18/07	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
04/07	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/06	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
20/06	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	4-0	6-0	11	1	W
13/06	Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
05/06	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	8	L
30/05	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
23/05	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
16/05	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-2	5	4	L

Adelaide Comets

DWLDWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
17/07	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
03/07	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	1-2	1-4	6	0	L
26/06	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
20/06	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
12/06	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	3-2	1	6	W
06/06	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
29/05	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	1-4	0	2	L
23/05	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	3-0	4-0	4	1	W
16/05	Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sturt Lions win (52%). Probabilities: Sturt Lions 52%, draw 24%, Adelaide Comets 24%.

How many goals are expected in Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Sturt Lions 1.79 · Adelaide Comets 1.15), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.