Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 01/08, 11:45

Prediction: Metrostars vs Adelaide United NPL

Team pages: Metrostars · Adelaide United NPL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Metrostars2.28

Adelaide United NPL0.87

1X2

69% 19% 12%

Metrostars Draw Adelaide United NPL

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Metrostars 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Adelaide United NPL 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDDLDWL

Head-to-head

Metrostars 4–2–0 Adelaide United NPL (6 last)

Adelaide United NPL1-6Metrostars
Metrostars2-1Adelaide United NPL
Adelaide United NPL0-1Metrostars
Metrostars1-1Adelaide United NPL
Adelaide United NPL3-3Metrostars
Metrostars5-1Adelaide United NPL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metrostars 1555 · Adelaide United NPL 1469

	Metrostars	Draw	Adelaide United NPL
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metrostars (rating 1555 vs 1469).
H2H favours Metrostars: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metrostars	Adelaide United NPL
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:07 +8’	1.30	5.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metrostars 4–2–0 Adelaide United NPL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide United NPL	1-6 HT 1-4	Metrostars
06/09/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	2-1 HT 0-1	Adelaide United NPL
30/08/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide United NPL	0-1 HT 0-0	Metrostars
28/06/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	1-1 HT 1-0	Adelaide United NPL
04/04/25 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide United NPL	3-3 HT 2-0	Metrostars
22/06/24 Australia South Australia Premier League	Metrostars	5-1 HT 3-0	Adelaide United NPL

Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide City	19	11	6	2	36	16	39
2	West Torrens Birkalla	19	12	2	5	46	25	38
3	Metrostars	19	11	4	4	49	22	37
4	Playford	19	9	5	5	40	28	32
5	White City FK Beograd	19	9	3	7	31	22	30
6	Croydon FC	19	8	5	6	42	34	29
7	Sturt Lions	19	8	1	10	33	32	25
8	Adelaide United NPL	19	6	7	6	26	27	25
9	Campbelltown City	19	6	5	8	30	31	23
10	West Adelaide	19	5	7	7	36	35	22
11	Adelaide Comets	19	4	4	11	20	35	16
12	Para Hills Knights	19	0	1	18	9	91	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metrostars	Adelaide United NPL
West Adelaide	1-3 L	1-3 L
Playford	0-1 L	0-0 D
West Torrens Birkalla	3-1 W	3-0 W
Para Hills Knights	9-0 W	2-0 W
Adelaide City	0-3 L	0-0 D
Sturt Lions	1-0 W	2-3 L
White City FK Beograd	2-1 W	2-0 W
Campbelltown City	4-0 W	0-0 D
Croydon FC	3-2 W	0-3 L
Adelaide Comets	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 4 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metrostars

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	1-3	10	3	L
18/07	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
04/07	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
27/06	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	4-0	9-0	8	0	W
20/06	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-2	0-3	5	0	L
13/06	Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
06/06	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	8	W
30/05	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
23/05	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
16/05	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Adelaide United NPL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League	1-2	2-3	3	2	L
19/07	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
04/07	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
26/06	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-3	13	0	L
20/06	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
13/06	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
07/06	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	1-2	1-3	5	1	L
30/05	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/05	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	3-0	2	3	W
16/05	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metrostars vs Adelaide United NPL?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metrostars win (69%). Probabilities: Metrostars 69%, draw 19%, Adelaide United NPL 12%.

How many goals are expected in Metrostars vs Adelaide United NPL?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Metrostars 2.28 · Adelaide United NPL 0.87), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Metrostars vs Adelaide United NPL?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.