Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 04/10, 16:00

Prediction: Trygg/Lade vs Junkeren

Team pages: Trygg/Lade · Junkeren

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Trygg/Lade1.69

Junkeren1.77

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Trygg/Lade Draw Junkeren

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Trygg/Lade 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDLLLL

Junkeren 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDDWWL

Head-to-head

Trygg/Lade 0–3 Junkeren (3 last)

Junkeren3-2Trygg/Lade
Trygg/Lade0-3Junkeren
Junkeren3-1Trygg/Lade

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trygg/Lade 1419 · Junkeren 1497

	Trygg/Lade	Draw	Junkeren
Our model	36%	24%	39%
Market	37%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Junkeren (rating 1419 vs 1497).
H2H favours Junkeren: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trygg/Lade	Junkeren
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.4	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	1.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.80

22.25

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.69 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +51’	2.45	3.80	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:38 +13’	2.69	3.76	2.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Trygg/Lade 0–0–3 Junkeren

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Junkeren	3-2 HT 1-1	Trygg/Lade
07/08/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Trygg/Lade	0-3 HT 0-2	Junkeren
22/05/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Junkeren	3-1	Trygg/Lade

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	21	16	3	2	52	17	51
2	Kjelsås	22	15	2	5	51	32	47
3	Levanger	21	15	0	6	51	23	45
4	Honefoss	22	14	3	5	56	33	45
5	Grorud	22	13	4	5	40	20	43
6	Stjørdals/Blink	22	10	3	9	38	38	33
7	Lørenskog	22	10	3	9	33	37	33
8	Tromsdalen	21	9	2	10	35	36	29
9	Junkeren	21	8	4	9	29	35	28
10	Rana FK	21	8	3	10	36	38	27
11	Skeid	22	6	2	14	32	50	20
12	Follo	22	3	5	14	25	46	14
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	22	3	1	18	26	72	10
14	Trygg/Lade	21	2	3	16	24	51	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trygg/Lade	Junkeren
Eidsvold TF	1-4 L	1-4 L
Skeid	1-1 D	1-0 W
Ullensaker/Kisa	1-1 D	3-2 W
Follo	2-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Junkeren (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trygg/Lade

LLWLDDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-4	0	0	L
20/09	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
13/09	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
06/09	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	2-3	7	3	L
30/08	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
16/08	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
02/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-1	10	2	W
26/07	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-2	2	1	L
28/06	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-7	1	2	L

Junkeren

DWLWLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	3-2	1	4	W
13/09	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
06/09	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
30/08	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	2-2	6	1	D
16/08	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
08/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	4-1	5	3	W
02/08	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-4	3	3	L
25/07	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
28/06	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trygg/Lade vs Junkeren?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Junkeren win (40%). Probabilities: Trygg/Lade 36%, draw 24%, Junkeren 40%.

How many goals are expected in Trygg/Lade vs Junkeren?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Trygg/Lade 1.69 · Junkeren 1.77), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Trygg/Lade vs Junkeren?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.