Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 11/10, 17:00

Prediction: Junkeren vs Grorud

Team pages: Junkeren · Grorud

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Junkeren1.14

Grorud2.16

1X2

19% 21% 60%

Junkeren Draw Grorud

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Junkeren 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDWWLW

Grorud 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Junkeren 0–3 Grorud (3 last)

Grorud3-0Junkeren
Grorud5-0Junkeren
Junkeren2-5Grorud

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Junkeren 1495 · Grorud 1608

	Junkeren	Draw	Grorud
Our model	18%	22%	60%
Market	19%	21%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grorud (rating 1495 vs 1608).
H2H favours Grorud: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Junkeren	Grorud
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	2.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 5.2	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.33

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.60 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:52 +12’	4.75	4.33	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:33 +90’	4.79	4.50	1.51
21:52 +131’	4.90▲	4.55▲	1.50▼
07:09 +79’	4.83▼	4.53▼	1.50▲
10:10 +95’	4.77▼	4.49▼	1.51▲
17:03 +28’	5.07▲	4.61▲	1.47▼
18:21 +177’	4.29▼	4.25▼	1.60▲
23:45 +11’	4.30▲	4.26▲	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Junkeren 0–0–3 Grorud

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Grorud	3-0 HT 3-0	Junkeren
29/09/24 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Grorud	5-0 HT 4-0	Junkeren
13/04/24 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Junkeren	2-5 HT 1-4	Grorud

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	23	17	3	3	55	20	54
2	Kjelsås	22	15	2	5	51	32	47
3	Levanger	22	15	0	7	53	27	45
4	Honefoss	22	14	3	5	56	33	45
5	Grorud	22	13	4	5	40	20	43
6	Stjørdals/Blink	22	10	3	9	38	38	33
7	Lørenskog	22	10	3	9	33	37	33
8	Tromsdalen	22	10	2	10	39	38	32
9	Junkeren	22	9	4	9	31	36	31
10	Rana FK	22	9	3	10	38	39	30
11	Skeid	23	6	2	15	33	52	20
12	Follo	23	3	5	15	27	50	14
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	23	4	1	18	30	74	13
14	Trygg/Lade	22	2	3	17	25	53	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Junkeren	Grorud
Trygg/Lade	2-1 W	1-0 W
Rana FK	0-2 L	4-2 W
Skeid	1-0 W	5-1 W
Lørenskog	1-1 D	4-0 W
Stjørdals/Blink	2-2 D	0-1 L
Kjelsås	0-2 L	3-2 W
Eidsvold TF	1-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Grorud (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Junkeren

WLWLDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
26/09	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	3-2	1	4	W
13/09	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
06/09	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
30/08	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	2-2	6	1	D
16/08	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
08/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	4-1	5	3	W
02/08	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-4	3	3	L
25/07	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	7	W

Grorud

LWWDWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	4-0	0	1	W
27/09	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/09	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	3-2	10	7	W
16/09	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
12/09	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
06/09	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	4-1	4-2	6	3	W
30/08	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
08/08	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
01/08	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-1	5-1	4	3	W
25/07	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Junkeren vs Grorud?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Grorud win (60%). Probabilities: Junkeren 19%, draw 21%, Grorud 60%.

How many goals are expected in Junkeren vs Grorud?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Junkeren 1.14 · Grorud 2.16), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Junkeren vs Grorud?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.