Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 19/09, 14:00

Prediction: Baerum vs FK Union Carl Berner

Team pages: Baerum · FK Union Carl Berner

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

Baerum2.41

FK Union Carl Berner1.49

1X2

58% 19% 23%

Baerum Draw FK Union Carl Berner

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Baerum 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWWDWL

FK Union Carl Berner 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLWD

Head-to-head

Baerum 0–1 FK Union Carl Berner (1 last)

FK Union Carl Berner2-0Baerum

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baerum 1554 · FK Union Carl Berner 1467

	Baerum	Draw	FK Union Carl Berner
Our model	57%	21%	22%
Market	58%	18%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Baerum (rating 1554 vs 1467).
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baerum	FK Union Carl Berner
Goals for / against (FT)	3.5 / 1.8	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.8	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X5.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:51 +9’	1.53	5.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baerum 0–0–1 FK Union Carl Berner

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	FK Union Carl Berner	2-0 HT 1-0	Baerum

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	18	16	1	1	68	24	49
2	Gamle Oslo	19	13	1	5	66	35	40
3	Heming	19	11	3	5	46	30	36
4	Baerum	19	11	2	6	60	35	35
5	Valerenga 2	19	11	1	7	46	54	34
6	IF Ready	19	8	6	5	46	37	30
7	Frigg	18	8	5	5	45	38	29
8	FK Union Carl Berner	18	8	1	9	27	27	25
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	19	6	2	11	35	55	20
10	Ullern	19	5	2	12	37	53	17
11	Nordstrand	19	5	2	12	31	47	17
12	KFUM 2	18	5	2	11	36	55	17
13	Konnerud	19	5	1	13	29	51	16
14	Grei	19	4	1	14	32	63	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baerum	FK Union Carl Berner
Nordstrand	1-0 W	1-1 D
Konnerud	1-1 D	1-2 L
Grei	7-1 W	1-0 W
Heming	1-3 L	0-2 L
Valerenga 2	6-3 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Baerum (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baerum

WWDWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-4	2-5	9	5	L
05/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
30/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
15/08	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	7-1	14	2	W
10/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-1	7	2	W
01/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
25/07	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	4-2	6-3	5	3	W
27/06	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-1	8	7	D
20/06	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	7-2	7	1	W
14/06	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	4-1	5	4	W

FK Union Carl Berner

LWWLLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-4	7	1	L
07/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
31/07	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-3	0	4	L
27/07	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/06	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
20/06	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
13/06	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baerum vs FK Union Carl Berner?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Baerum win (58%). Probabilities: Baerum 58%, draw 19%, FK Union Carl Berner 23%.

How many goals are expected in Baerum vs FK Union Carl Berner?

The model expects 3.9 goals (Baerum 2.41 · FK Union Carl Berner 1.49), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Baerum vs FK Union Carl Berner?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.