Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 26/09, 17:30

Prediction: FK Union Carl Berner vs Frigg

Team pages: FK Union Carl Berner · Frigg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

FK Union Carl Berner1.68

Frigg1.86

1X2

35% 23% 42%

FK Union Carl Berner Draw Frigg

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Union Carl Berner 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Frigg 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Union Carl Berner 1–0 Frigg (1 last)

Frigg1-3FK Union Carl Berner

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Union Carl Berner 1497 · Frigg 1510

	FK Union Carl Berner	Draw	Frigg
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	35%	22%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Union Carl Berner	Frigg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	2.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X4.00

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	2.80 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +32’	1.95	4.10	2.80
17:24 +61’	2.55▲	4.00▼	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Union Carl Berner 1–0–0 Frigg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Frigg	1-3 HT 0-1	FK Union Carl Berner

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	19	17	1	1	70	25	52
2	Gamle Oslo	20	13	1	6	67	37	40
3	Heming	20	12	3	5	50	31	39
4	Baerum	20	11	2	7	61	37	35
5	Valerenga 2	20	11	1	8	47	56	34
6	IF Ready	20	9	6	5	51	39	33
7	Frigg	19	9	5	5	47	38	32
8	FK Union Carl Berner	19	9	1	9	29	28	28
9	Nordstrand	20	6	2	12	36	47	20
10	Ullern	20	6	2	12	39	54	20
11	Lokomotiv Oslo	20	6	2	12	35	60	20
12	KFUM 2	19	5	2	12	38	60	17
13	Konnerud	20	5	1	14	29	53	16
14	Grei	20	4	1	15	33	67	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Union Carl Berner	Frigg
Baerum	2-1 W	1-1 D
Nordstrand	1-1 D	3-2 W
Ullern	1-4 L	2-2 D
Konnerud	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Frigg (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Union Carl Berner

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
12/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-4	7	1	L
07/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
31/07	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-3	0	4	L
27/07	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/06	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
20/06	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
13/06	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frigg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
12/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-5	7	2	L
05/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	5-2	7	4	W
15/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
01/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
27/07	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-3	7	8	D
27/06	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
20/06	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-1	7	3	W
13/06	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	4-1	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Union Carl Berner vs Frigg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Frigg win (42%). Probabilities: FK Union Carl Berner 35%, draw 23%, Frigg 42%.

How many goals are expected in FK Union Carl Berner vs Frigg?

The model expects 3.55 goals (FK Union Carl Berner 1.68 · Frigg 1.86), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Union Carl Berner vs Frigg?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.