Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 26/09, 14:00

Prediction: Valerenga 2 vs Baerum

Team pages: Valerenga 2 · Baerum

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.48Total

Valerenga 21.86

Baerum2.62

1X2

26% 20% 54%

Valerenga 2 Draw Baerum

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Valerenga 2 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLWWL

Baerum 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWDWLL

Head-to-head

Valerenga 2 1–2–3 Baerum (6 last)

Baerum6-3Valerenga 2
Valerenga 24-0Baerum
Baerum4-0Valerenga 2
Baerum2-2Valerenga 2
Valerenga 22-3Baerum
Baerum2-2Valerenga 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valerenga 2 1517 · Baerum 1530

	Valerenga 2	Draw	Baerum
Our model	27%	20%	54%
Market	26%	20%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Baerum: 3-2-1.
High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valerenga 2	Baerum
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.7	3.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.4	3.3 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X4.50

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 5.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:54 +6’	3.40	4.50	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerenga 2 1–2–3 Baerum

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Baerum	6-3 HT 4-2	Valerenga 2
06/10/22 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Valerenga 2	4-0 HT 3-0	Baerum
20/06/22 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Baerum	4-0 HT 2-0	Valerenga 2
06/11/21 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Baerum	2-2 HT 0-0	Valerenga 2
21/06/21 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Valerenga 2	2-3 HT 2-1	Baerum
19/10/20 Norway PostNord Cup	Baerum	2-2 HT 1-1	Valerenga 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	19	17	1	1	70	25	52
2	Gamle Oslo	20	13	1	6	67	37	40
3	Heming	20	12	3	5	50	31	39
4	Baerum	20	11	2	7	61	37	35
5	Valerenga 2	20	11	1	8	47	56	34
6	IF Ready	20	9	6	5	51	39	33
7	Frigg	19	9	5	5	47	38	32
8	FK Union Carl Berner	19	9	1	9	29	28	28
9	Nordstrand	20	6	2	12	36	47	20
10	Ullern	20	6	2	12	39	54	20
11	Lokomotiv Oslo	20	6	2	12	35	60	20
12	KFUM 2	19	5	2	12	38	60	17
13	Konnerud	20	5	1	14	29	53	16
14	Grei	20	4	1	15	33	67	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valerenga 2	Baerum
Konnerud	2-1 W	1-1 D
Heming	2-5 L	1-3 L
Lokomotiv Oslo	3-2 W	2-5 L
FK Union Carl Berner	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga 2 (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valerenga 2

WWLWLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
30/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-5	6	4	L
16/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	10	2	W
08/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-5	4	3	L
01/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	3-2	7	6	W
25/07	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-4	3-6	7	3	L
26/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
21/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W

Baerum

WDWLWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
13/09	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-4	2-5	9	5	L
05/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
30/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
15/08	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	7-1	14	2	W
10/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-1	7	2	W
01/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
25/07	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	4-2	6-3	5	3	W
27/06	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-1	8	7	D
20/06	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	7-2	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valerenga 2 vs Baerum?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Baerum win (54%). Probabilities: Valerenga 2 26%, draw 20%, Baerum 54%.

How many goals are expected in Valerenga 2 vs Baerum?

The model expects 4.48 goals (Valerenga 2 1.86 · Baerum 2.62), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valerenga 2 vs Baerum?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.