Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 03/10, 14:00

Prediction: FK Union Carl Berner vs Lokomotiv Oslo

Team pages: FK Union Carl Berner · Lokomotiv Oslo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

FK Union Carl Berner2.51

Lokomotiv Oslo1.71

1X2

55% 20% 25%

FK Union Carl Berner Draw Lokomotiv Oslo

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Union Carl Berner 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDWWD

Lokomotiv Oslo 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLWWLW

Head-to-head

FK Union Carl Berner 1–0 Lokomotiv Oslo (1 last)

Lokomotiv Oslo0-8FK Union Carl Berner

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Union Carl Berner 1503 · Lokomotiv Oslo 1476

	FK Union Carl Berner	Draw	Lokomotiv Oslo
Our model	55%	20%	25%
Market	54%	21%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 4.21 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Union Carl Berner	Lokomotiv Oslo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	2.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.33

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:18 +4’	1.65	4.33	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Union Carl Berner 1–0–0 Lokomotiv Oslo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Lokomotiv Oslo	0-8 HT 0-5	FK Union Carl Berner

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	20	18	1	1	71	25	55
2	Heming	21	13	3	5	53	31	42
3	Gamle Oslo	21	13	1	7	68	41	40
4	Valerenga 2	21	12	1	8	49	56	37
5	Baerum	21	11	2	8	61	39	35
6	IF Ready	21	9	6	6	53	42	33
7	Frigg	20	9	5	6	49	44	32
8	FK Union Carl Berner	21	10	2	9	36	31	32
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	21	7	2	12	39	61	23
10	KFUM 2	21	6	3	12	40	61	21
11	Nordstrand	21	6	2	13	36	48	20
12	Ullern	21	6	2	13	39	57	20
13	Konnerud	21	5	1	15	29	54	16
14	Grei	21	5	1	15	36	69	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Union Carl Berner	Lokomotiv Oslo
KFUM 2	1-1 D	3-0 W
Frigg	6-2 W	2-2 D
Baerum	2-1 W	5-2 W
Nordstrand	1-1 D	0-5 L
Grei	1-0 W	1-0 W
Ullern	1-4 L	2-3 L
Gamle Oslo	1-3 L	4-1 W
Valerenga 2	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Oslo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Union Carl Berner

LLLLLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
26/09	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	5-1	6-2	5	2	W
19/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
12/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-4	7	1	L
07/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
31/07	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-3	0	4	L
27/07	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/06	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	5	4	L

Lokomotiv Oslo

LWLWDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	4-1	0	6	W
19/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-5	1	4	L
13/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	4-1	5-2	4	5	W
07/09	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-0	4	7	W
30/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	2-3	3	5	L
15/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
01/08	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	2-3	3	6	L
27/07	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
24/06	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-6	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Union Carl Berner vs Lokomotiv Oslo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Union Carl Berner win (55%). Probabilities: FK Union Carl Berner 55%, draw 20%, Lokomotiv Oslo 25%.

How many goals are expected in FK Union Carl Berner vs Lokomotiv Oslo?

The model expects 4.21 goals (FK Union Carl Berner 2.51 · Lokomotiv Oslo 1.71), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Union Carl Berner vs Lokomotiv Oslo?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.