Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 10/10, 14:00

Prediction: Valerenga 2 vs Frigg

Team pages: Valerenga 2 · Frigg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.4Total

Valerenga 22.36

Frigg2.04

1X2

46% 21% 34%

Valerenga 2 Draw Frigg

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Valerenga 2 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWLWW

Frigg 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWDWLWLD

Head-to-head

Valerenga 2 3–1–2 Frigg (6 last)

Frigg3-3Valerenga 2
Frigg4-0Valerenga 2
Valerenga 24-1Frigg
Frigg3-2Valerenga 2
Valerenga 24-0Frigg
Valerenga 25-2Frigg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valerenga 2 1529 · Frigg 1481

	Valerenga 2	Draw	Frigg
Our model	46%	21%	34%
Market	46%	21%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 4.4 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerenga 2 (rating 1529 vs 1481).
H2H favours Valerenga 2: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valerenga 2	Frigg
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2.5	2.2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.33

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:17 +19’	1.95	4.33	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerenga 2 3–1–2 Frigg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Frigg	3-3 HT 1-2	Valerenga 2
22/10/22 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Frigg	4-0 HT 2-0	Valerenga 2
09/05/22 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Valerenga 2	4-1 HT 0-0	Frigg
02/09/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Frigg	3-2 HT 1-0	Valerenga 2
01/07/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Valerenga 2	4-0 HT 1-0	Frigg
02/08/16 Norway Division 2 Group 3	Valerenga 2	5-2 HT 3-0	Frigg

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	21	18	1	2	74	29	55
2	Heming	22	13	4	5	58	36	43
3	Gamle Oslo	22	13	2	7	69	42	41
4	Valerenga 2	22	13	1	8	52	56	40
5	Baerum	21	11	2	8	61	39	35
6	FK Union Carl Berner	22	11	2	9	40	32	35
7	IF Ready	21	9	6	6	53	42	33
8	Frigg	21	9	6	6	50	45	33
9	Ullern	22	7	2	13	42	58	23
10	Lokomotiv Oslo	22	7	2	13	40	65	23
11	KFUM 2	22	6	3	13	41	64	21
12	Nordstrand	22	6	2	14	36	51	20
13	Grei	22	6	1	15	40	72	19
14	Konnerud	22	5	2	15	34	59	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valerenga 2	Frigg
Nordstrand	3-0 W	3-2 W
Baerum	2-0 W	1-1 D
Ullern	1-2 L	2-2 D
Gamle Oslo	2-1 W	1-1 D
Konnerud	2-1 W	2-0 W
Heming	2-5 L	1-5 L
IF Ready	4-3 W	5-2 W
Lokomotiv Oslo	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga 2 (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valerenga 2

LWLWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
26/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/09	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
30/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-5	6	4	L
16/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	10	2	W
08/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-5	4	3	L
01/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	3-2	7	6	W
25/07	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-4	3-6	7	3	L

Frigg

DDDWDWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
26/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-5	2-6	2	2	L
19/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
12/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-5	7	2	L
05/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	5-2	7	4	W
15/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
01/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
27/07	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-3	7	8	D
27/06	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-1	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valerenga 2 vs Frigg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valerenga 2 win (46%). Probabilities: Valerenga 2 46%, draw 21%, Frigg 34%.

How many goals are expected in Valerenga 2 vs Frigg?

The model expects 4.4 goals (Valerenga 2 2.36 · Frigg 2.04), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valerenga 2 vs Frigg?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.