Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 10/10, 13:00

Prediction: Ullern vs Grei

Team pages: Ullern · Grei

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.38Total

Ullern2.62

Grei1.75

1X2

56% 19% 25%

Ullern Draw Grei

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Ullern 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLWLW

Grei 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Ullern 2–1 Grei (3 last)

Grei3-2Ullern
Grei1-3Ullern
Ullern3-1Grei

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ullern 1475 · Grei 1464

	Ullern	Draw	Grei
Our model	56%	19%	25%
Market	57%	18%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ullern: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ullern	Grei
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.8	1.9 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.3	2.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X5.00

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:57 +22’	1.60	5.00	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ullern 2–0–1 Grei

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Grei	3-2 HT 2-0	Ullern
07/09/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Grei	1-3 HT 1-0	Ullern
29/06/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Ullern	3-1 HT 1-1	Grei

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	21	18	1	2	74	29	55
2	Heming	22	13	4	5	58	36	43
3	Gamle Oslo	22	13	2	7	69	42	41
4	Valerenga 2	22	13	1	8	52	56	40
5	Baerum	21	11	2	8	61	39	35
6	FK Union Carl Berner	22	11	2	9	40	32	35
7	IF Ready	21	9	6	6	53	42	33
8	Frigg	21	9	6	6	50	45	33
9	Ullern	22	7	2	13	42	58	23
10	Lokomotiv Oslo	22	7	2	13	40	65	23
11	KFUM 2	22	6	3	13	41	64	21
12	Nordstrand	22	6	2	14	36	51	20
13	Grei	22	6	1	15	40	72	19
14	Konnerud	22	5	2	15	34	59	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ullern	Grei
KFUM 2	3-1 W	0-5 L
Heming	0-3 L	1-4 L
IF Ready	3-4 L	3-2 W
Asker	2-6 L	4-3 W
Lokomotiv Oslo	3-2 W	0-1 L
FK Union Carl Berner	4-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ullern (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ullern

LDLWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	3-1	0	5	W
26/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-3	4	5	L
19/09	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
12/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	3-4	12	3	L
05/09	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	2-6	6	1	L
30/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	4-1	6	1	W
08/08	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
01/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
25/07	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-3	8	3	L

Grei

WLLLWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	5	2	W
26/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-2	2	6	W
19/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
12/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	2-3	0	4	L
05/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	12	4	L
01/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-3	2	3	W
15/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-7	2	2	L
08/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
25/07	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ullern vs Grei?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ullern win (56%). Probabilities: Ullern 56%, draw 19%, Grei 25%.

How many goals are expected in Ullern vs Grei?

The model expects 4.38 goals (Ullern 2.62 · Grei 1.75), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Ullern vs Grei?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.