Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 10/10, 14:00

Prediction: Asker vs Baerum

Team pages: Asker · Baerum

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.44Total

Asker2.85

Baerum1.58

1X2

63% 18% 19%

Asker Draw Baerum

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Asker 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWL

Baerum 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWLLLL

Head-to-head

Asker 3–3 Baerum (6 last)

Baerum2-4Asker
Baerum4-0Asker
Asker0-1Baerum
Baerum1-4Asker
Asker0-2Baerum
Baerum1-3Asker

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Asker 1594 · Baerum 1458

	Asker	Draw	Baerum
Our model	63%	18%	19%
Market	63%	18%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 4.44 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Asker (rating 1594 vs 1458).
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Asker	Baerum
Goals for / against (FT)	3.7 / 1.8	2.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.5	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.9	2.5 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.42

X5.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +26’	1.42	5.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Asker 3–0–3 Baerum

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Baerum	2-4 HT 2-3	Asker
16/03/25 Europe Friendlies	Baerum	4-0 HT 1-0	Asker
17/08/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Asker	0-1 HT 0-1	Baerum
20/05/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Baerum	1-4 HT 1-2	Asker
24/05/23 Norway Cup	Asker	0-2 HT 0-0	Baerum
25/03/23 Europe Friendlies	Baerum	1-3 HT 0-2	Asker

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	21	18	1	2	74	29	55
2	Heming	22	13	4	5	58	36	43
3	Gamle Oslo	22	13	2	7	69	42	41
4	Valerenga 2	22	13	1	8	52	56	40
5	Baerum	21	11	2	8	61	39	35
6	FK Union Carl Berner	22	11	2	9	40	32	35
7	IF Ready	21	9	6	6	53	42	33
8	Frigg	21	9	6	6	50	45	33
9	Ullern	22	7	2	13	42	58	23
10	Lokomotiv Oslo	22	7	2	13	40	65	23
11	KFUM 2	22	6	3	13	41	64	21
12	Nordstrand	22	6	2	14	36	51	20
13	Grei	22	6	1	15	40	72	19
14	Konnerud	22	5	2	15	34	59	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Asker	Baerum
Grei	3-4 L	7-1 W
Nordstrand	1-0 W	1-0 W
KFUM 2	7-2 W	5-1 W
Heming	5-2 W	1-3 L
Valerenga 2	5-4 W	0-2 L
IF Ready	3-0 W	1-2 L
FK Union Carl Berner	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Asker (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Asker

WWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-4	5	2	L
26/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
20/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
14/09	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	4-0	7-2	9	0	W
05/09	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-1	6-2	6	1	W
15/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-2	–	–	W
08/08	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-4	5	3	W
02/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-0	7	3	W
27/07	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
27/06	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	3-2	7	4	W

Baerum

WLWWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
26/09	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
19/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
13/09	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-4	2-5	9	5	L
05/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
30/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
15/08	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	7-1	14	2	W
10/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-1	7	3	W
01/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
25/07	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	4-2	6-3	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Asker vs Baerum?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Asker win (63%). Probabilities: Asker 63%, draw 18%, Baerum 19%.

How many goals are expected in Asker vs Baerum?

The model expects 4.44 goals (Asker 2.85 · Baerum 1.58), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Asker vs Baerum?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.