Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 30/08, 13:00

Prediction: Heming vs Valerenga 2

Team pages: Heming · Valerenga 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.36Total

Heming2.76

Valerenga 21.6

1X2

61% 18% 20%

Heming Draw Valerenga 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Heming 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDWWDL

Valerenga 2 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Heming 1–0 Valerenga 2 (1 last)

Valerenga 21-6Heming

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heming 1535 · Valerenga 2 1523

	Heming	Draw	Valerenga 2
Our model	61%	18%	20%
Market	62%	18%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 4.36 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heming	Valerenga 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.5	2.4 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.8 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.6	3.4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X5.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.45▲	Bet365 1.45
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.50 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:20 +3’	1.40	5.00	5.00
02:45 +20’	1.60▲	4.75▼	3.70▼
11:19 +4’	1.45▼	5.00▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:58 +6’	1.44	4.73	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Heming 1–0–0 Valerenga 2

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Valerenga 2	1-6 HT 0-3	Heming

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	16	14	1	1	55	20	43
2	Gamle Oslo	16	11	1	4	60	30	34
3	Baerum	16	10	1	5	56	29	31
4	Heming	16	9	3	4	35	25	30
5	Valerenga 2	16	9	1	6	40	47	28
6	IF Ready	16	7	6	3	38	26	27
7	Frigg	16	7	5	4	39	31	26
8	FK Union Carl Berner	16	7	0	9	25	26	21
9	KFUM 2	16	5	2	9	34	45	17
10	Nordstrand	16	5	1	10	27	40	16
11	Ullern	16	4	2	10	29	41	14
12	Lokomotiv Oslo	16	4	2	10	25	50	14
13	Konnerud	16	4	0	12	24	46	12
14	Grei	16	3	1	12	25	56	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heming	Valerenga 2
Asker	2-5 L	4-5 L
IF Ready	1-1 D	4-3 W
Baerum	3-1 W	3-6 L
KFUM 2	2-2 D	1-2 L
FK Union Carl Berner	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Heming (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Heming

DWWLWDWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
08/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
01/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
25/07	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
28/06	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-2	2	1	D
20/06	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	9	W
13/06	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-4	7	1	L
30/05	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
25/05	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	6-1	9	4	W
16/05	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Valerenga 2

LLWWWWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	10	2	W
08/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-5	4	3	L
01/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	3-2	7	6	W
25/07	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-4	3-6	6	4	L
26/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
21/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/06	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	3-2	5	5	W
31/05	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
25/05	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	1-6	11	4	L
15/05	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heming vs Valerenga 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Heming win (61%). Probabilities: Heming 61%, draw 18%, Valerenga 2 20%.

How many goals are expected in Heming vs Valerenga 2?

The model expects 4.36 goals (Heming 2.76 · Valerenga 2 1.6), with a 54% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Heming vs Valerenga 2?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.