Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 05/09, 13:00

Prediction: Ullern vs Asker

Team pages: Ullern · Asker

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

Ullern1.41

Asker3

1X2

14% 17% 69%

Ullern Draw Asker

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Ullern 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLDLWW

Asker 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Ullern 3–3 Asker (6 last)

Asker3-2Ullern
Asker1-0Ullern
Ullern2-1Asker
Ullern3-0Asker
Ullern0-1Asker
Ullern3-1Asker

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ullern 1469 · Asker 1607

	Ullern	Draw	Asker
Our model	15%	16%	69%
Market	14%	17%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Asker (rating 1469 vs 1607).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ullern	Asker
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.3	3.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	70/0/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.4	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.25

X5.25

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.90

2 (-1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +3’	6.25	5.25	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ullern 3–0–3 Asker

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Asker	3-2 HT 0-1	Ullern
31/08/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Asker	1-0 HT 0-0	Ullern
01/06/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Ullern	2-1 HT 1-1	Asker
18/05/22 Norway Cup	Ullern	3-0 HT 1-0	Asker
02/04/22 Europe Friendlies	Ullern	0-1 HT 0-1	Asker
25/07/21 Norway Cup	Ullern	3-1 HT 0-1	Asker

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	16	14	1	1	55	20	43
2	Gamle Oslo	17	12	1	4	63	32	37
3	Heming	17	10	3	4	40	27	33
4	Baerum	17	10	2	5	57	30	32
5	Valerenga 2	17	9	1	7	42	52	28
6	IF Ready	17	7	6	4	40	29	27
7	Frigg	16	7	5	4	39	31	26
8	FK Union Carl Berner	16	7	0	9	25	26	21
9	KFUM 2	16	5	2	9	34	45	17
10	Ullern	17	5	2	10	32	43	17
11	Nordstrand	17	5	1	11	30	45	16
12	Lokomotiv Oslo	17	4	2	11	27	53	14
13	Konnerud	17	4	1	12	25	47	13
14	Grei	17	4	1	12	30	59	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ullern	Asker
Lokomotiv Oslo	3-2 W	6-0 W
FK Union Carl Berner	4-1 W	2-1 W
Gamle Oslo	2-5 L	0-4 L
Heming	1-3 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ullern

LWWLLLDLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	4-1	6	1	W
08/08	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
01/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
25/07	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-3	8	4	L
27/06	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
20/06	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	2-3	9	3	L
13/06	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	3-2	2	4	W
30/05	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	14	2	W
25/05	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	1	5	L

Asker

WLDWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-2	–	–	W
08/08	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-4	5	3	W
02/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-0	7	3	W
27/07	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
27/06	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	3-2	7	4	W
20/06	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
13/06	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	6-0	4	2	W
30/05	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
25/05	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-4	8	3	L
16/05	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-2	4-2	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ullern vs Asker?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Asker win (69%). Probabilities: Ullern 14%, draw 17%, Asker 69%.

How many goals are expected in Ullern vs Asker?

The model expects 4.41 goals (Ullern 1.41 · Asker 3), with a 54% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Ullern vs Asker?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.