Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 05/09, 13:00

Prediction: Grei vs FK Union Carl Berner

Team pages: Grei · FK Union Carl Berner

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Grei1.61

FK Union Carl Berner2.4

1X2

25% 20% 55%

Grei Draw FK Union Carl Berner

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Grei 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLLW

FK Union Carl Berner 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Grei 0–1 FK Union Carl Berner (1 last)

FK Union Carl Berner2-1Grei

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grei 1406 · FK Union Carl Berner 1468

	Grei	Draw	FK Union Carl Berner
Our model	25%	21%	55%
Market	26%	19%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Union Carl Berner (rating 1406 vs 1468).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grei	FK Union Carl Berner
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 3.7	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.8	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.75

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +3’	3.50	4.75	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grei 0–0–1 FK Union Carl Berner

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	FK Union Carl Berner	2-1 HT 1-1	Grei

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	16	14	1	1	55	20	43
2	Gamle Oslo	17	12	1	4	63	32	37
3	Heming	17	10	3	4	40	27	33
4	Baerum	17	10	2	5	57	30	32
5	Valerenga 2	17	9	1	7	42	52	28
6	IF Ready	17	7	6	4	40	29	27
7	Frigg	16	7	5	4	39	31	26
8	FK Union Carl Berner	16	7	0	9	25	26	21
9	KFUM 2	16	5	2	9	34	45	17
10	Ullern	17	5	2	10	32	43	17
11	Nordstrand	17	5	1	11	30	45	16
12	Lokomotiv Oslo	17	4	2	11	27	53	14
13	Konnerud	17	4	1	12	25	47	13
14	Grei	17	4	1	12	30	59	13

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grei	FK Union Carl Berner
Lokomotiv Oslo	0-1 L	8-0 W
Konnerud	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grei

LLLLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-3	2	3	W
15/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-7	2	2	L
08/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
25/07	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
27/06	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	1-5	2	3	L
20/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
13/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	3-5	1	5	L
30/05	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
23/05	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-3	7	9	L

FK Union Carl Berner

WWLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-4	7	1	L
07/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
31/07	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-3	0	4	L
27/07	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/06	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
20/06	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
13/06	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
25/05	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
14/05	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	5-0	8-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grei vs FK Union Carl Berner?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Union Carl Berner win (55%). Probabilities: Grei 25%, draw 20%, FK Union Carl Berner 55%.

How many goals are expected in Grei vs FK Union Carl Berner?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Grei 1.61 · FK Union Carl Berner 2.4), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Grei vs FK Union Carl Berner?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.