Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 19/09, 13:00

Prediction: Frigg vs Konnerud

Team pages: Frigg · Konnerud

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.33Total

Frigg2.77

Konnerud1.56

1X2

63% 18% 20%

Frigg Draw Konnerud

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Frigg 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDWDWL

Konnerud 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLDLW

Head-to-head

Frigg 0–1 Konnerud (1 last)

Konnerud2-1Frigg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Frigg 1517 · Konnerud 1447

	Frigg	Draw	Konnerud
Our model	62%	18%	19%
Market	63%	17%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 4.33 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frigg (rating 1517 vs 1447).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Frigg	Konnerud
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2	1.3 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X5.25

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:39 +7’	1.42	5.25	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Frigg 0–0–1 Konnerud

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Konnerud	2-1 HT 2-0	Frigg

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	18	16	1	1	68	24	49
2	Gamle Oslo	19	13	1	5	66	35	40
3	Heming	19	11	3	5	46	30	36
4	Baerum	19	11	2	6	60	35	35
5	Valerenga 2	19	11	1	7	46	54	34
6	IF Ready	19	8	6	5	46	37	30
7	Frigg	18	8	5	5	45	38	29
8	FK Union Carl Berner	18	8	1	9	27	27	25
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	19	6	2	11	35	55	20
10	Ullern	19	5	2	12	37	53	17
11	Nordstrand	19	5	2	12	31	47	17
12	KFUM 2	18	5	2	11	36	55	17
13	Konnerud	19	5	1	13	29	51	16
14	Grei	19	4	1	14	32	63	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Frigg	Konnerud
IF Ready	5-2 W	0-1 L
Nordstrand	3-2 W	2-3 L
Baerum	1-1 D	1-1 D
Gamle Oslo	3-1 W	1-7 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Frigg (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Frigg

WWWDDDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-5	7	2	L
05/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	5-2	7	4	W
15/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
01/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	2-2	2	6	D
27/07	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-3	7	8	D
27/06	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
20/06	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-1	7	3	W
13/06	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	4-1	4	1	W
30/05	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	3-1	2	4	W

Konnerud

LLLLLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-2	11	4	W
05/09	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
30/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
15/08	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-5	1-7	1	1	L
07/08	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	2-1	6	3	W
01/08	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-3	2	3	L
25/07	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
25/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
20/06	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-7	1	1	L
13/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Frigg vs Konnerud?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Frigg win (63%). Probabilities: Frigg 63%, draw 18%, Konnerud 20%.

How many goals are expected in Frigg vs Konnerud?

The model expects 4.33 goals (Frigg 2.77 · Konnerud 1.56), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Frigg vs Konnerud?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.