Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: Nordstrand vs Valerenga 2

Team pages: Nordstrand · Valerenga 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.42Total

Nordstrand2.32

Valerenga 22.1

1X2

44% 20% 36%

Nordstrand Draw Valerenga 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Nordstrand 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLDWL

Valerenga 2 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Nordstrand 0–1 Valerenga 2 (1 last)

Valerenga 23-2Nordstrand

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nordstrand 1445 · Valerenga 2 1526

	Nordstrand	Draw	Valerenga 2
Our model	44%	21%	36%
Market	44%	20%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 4.42 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerenga 2 (rating 1445 vs 1526).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nordstrand	Valerenga 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.3	2.5 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2.8 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.50

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +60’	2.05	4.50	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nordstrand 0–0–1 Valerenga 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Valerenga 2	3-2 HT 1-1	Nordstrand

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	20	18	1	1	71	25	55
2	Heming	21	13	3	5	53	31	42
3	Gamle Oslo	21	13	1	7	68	41	40
4	Valerenga 2	21	12	1	8	49	56	37
5	Baerum	21	11	2	8	61	39	35
6	IF Ready	21	9	6	6	53	42	33
7	Frigg	20	9	5	6	49	44	32
8	FK Union Carl Berner	21	10	2	9	36	31	32
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	21	7	2	12	39	61	23
10	KFUM 2	21	6	3	12	40	61	21
11	Nordstrand	21	6	2	13	36	48	20
12	Ullern	21	6	2	13	39	57	20
13	Konnerud	21	5	1	15	29	54	16
14	Grei	21	5	1	15	36	69	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nordstrand	Valerenga 2
Asker	0-1 L	4-5 L
Lokomotiv Oslo	5-0 W	3-2 W
FK Union Carl Berner	1-1 D	2-1 W
Baerum	0-1 L	2-0 W
Konnerud	3-2 W	2-1 W
Gamle Oslo	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga 2 (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nordstrand

WLWLLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
19/09	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-0	3	4	W
12/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
05/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
01/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	3-5	7	3	L
17/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-3	2-7	4	4	L
08/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
01/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-2	5	3	W
25/07	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
27/06	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-1	5-1	4	3	W

Valerenga 2

WLWLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/09	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
30/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-5	6	4	L
16/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	10	2	W
08/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-5	4	3	L
01/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	3-2	7	6	W
25/07	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-4	3-6	7	3	L
26/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nordstrand vs Valerenga 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nordstrand win (44%). Probabilities: Nordstrand 44%, draw 20%, Valerenga 2 36%.

How many goals are expected in Nordstrand vs Valerenga 2?

The model expects 4.42 goals (Nordstrand 2.32 · Valerenga 2 2.1), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nordstrand vs Valerenga 2?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.