Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: Konnerud vs Heming

Team pages: Konnerud · Heming

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

Konnerud1.31

Heming2.52

1X2

18% 18% 64%

Konnerud Draw Heming

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Konnerud 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDLWLL

Heming 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWLWWW

Head-to-head

Konnerud 0–1 Heming (1 last)

Heming3-1Konnerud

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Konnerud 1428 · Heming 1553

	Konnerud	Draw	Heming
Our model	18%	19%	63%
Market	19%	17%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.82 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heming (rating 1428 vs 1553).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Konnerud	Heming
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	2.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	2.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.80

X5.25

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.80 → 4.80	Bet365 4.80
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03 +70’	4.80	5.25	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Konnerud 0–0–1 Heming

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Heming	3-1 HT 1-0	Konnerud

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	20	18	1	1	71	25	55
2	Heming	21	13	3	5	53	31	42
3	Gamle Oslo	21	13	1	7	68	41	40
4	Valerenga 2	21	12	1	8	49	56	37
5	Baerum	21	11	2	8	61	39	35
6	IF Ready	21	9	6	6	53	42	33
7	Frigg	20	9	5	6	49	44	32
8	FK Union Carl Berner	21	10	2	9	36	31	32
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	21	7	2	12	39	61	23
10	KFUM 2	21	6	3	12	40	61	21
11	Nordstrand	21	6	2	13	36	48	20
12	Ullern	21	6	2	13	39	57	20
13	Konnerud	21	5	1	15	29	54	16
14	Grei	21	5	1	15	36	69	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Konnerud	Heming
KFUM 2	0-1 L	2-2 D
Frigg	0-2 L	5-1 W
Grei	3-2 W	4-1 W
Valerenga 2	1-2 L	5-2 W
Baerum	1-1 D	3-1 W
Gamle Oslo	1-7 L	1-2 L
IF Ready	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Heming (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Konnerud

LLLWLDLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
19/09	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
12/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-2	11	4	W
05/09	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
30/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
15/08	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-5	1-7	1	1	L
07/08	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	2-1	6	3	W
01/08	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-3	2	3	L
25/07	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
25/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	2	L

Heming

DWWDLWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
19/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	4-1	6	1	W
12/09	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-1	3	2	W
04/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
30/08	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-2	7	4	W
15/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
08/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
01/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
25/07	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
28/06	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-2	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Konnerud vs Heming?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Heming win (64%). Probabilities: Konnerud 18%, draw 18%, Heming 64%.

How many goals are expected in Konnerud vs Heming?

The model expects 3.82 goals (Konnerud 1.31 · Heming 2.52), with a 57% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Konnerud vs Heming?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.