Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 03/10, 14:30

Prediction: Follo vs Stjørdals/Blink

Team pages: Follo · Stjørdals/Blink

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Follo1.68

Stjørdals/Blink1.6

1X2

39% 24% 36%

Follo Draw Stjørdals/Blink

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Follo 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLWLLD

Stjørdals/Blink 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLLWW

Head-to-head

Follo 2–3 Stjørdals/Blink (5 last)

Stjørdals/Blink1-2Follo
Stjørdals/Blink2-0Follo
Follo1-0Stjørdals/Blink
Follo2-3Stjørdals/Blink
Stjørdals/Blink4-2Follo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Follo 1456 · Stjørdals/Blink 1527

	Follo	Draw	Stjørdals/Blink
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	40%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stjørdals/Blink (rating 1456 vs 1527).
H2H favours Stjørdals/Blink: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Follo	Stjørdals/Blink
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.4	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.80

22.45

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.96

Under 3.51.83

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.38
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.24 ★
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +2’	2.25	3.80	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +13’	2.38	4.24	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Follo 2–0–3 Stjørdals/Blink

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Stjørdals/Blink	1-2 HT 1-1	Follo
02/08/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Stjørdals/Blink	2-0 HT 2-0	Follo
27/04/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Follo	1-0 HT 0-0	Stjørdals/Blink
22/09/24 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Follo	2-3 HT 0-2	Stjørdals/Blink
20/04/24 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Stjørdals/Blink	4-2 HT 2-1	Follo

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	20	15	3	2	48	16	48
2	Levanger	20	15	0	5	51	21	45
3	Kjelsås	21	14	2	5	49	31	44
4	Honefoss	20	13	3	4	51	28	42
5	Grorud	20	11	4	5	34	20	37
6	Stjørdals/Blink	21	9	3	9	37	38	30
7	Lørenskog	20	9	3	8	29	32	30
8	Tromsdalen	20	9	2	9	34	34	29
9	Junkeren	21	8	4	9	29	35	28
10	Rana FK	21	8	3	10	36	38	27
11	Skeid	20	5	2	13	27	43	17
12	Follo	21	3	5	13	25	45	14
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	21	3	1	17	25	70	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	2	3	15	23	47	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Follo	Stjørdals/Blink
Kjelsås	2-2 D	0-5 L
Eidsvold TF	0-1 L	1-3 L
Levanger	2-5 L	2-1 W
Honefoss	1-2 L	4-2 W
Rana FK	3-3 D	4-2 W
Junkeren	1-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Stjørdals/Blink (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Follo

DLLLDLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	2-2	2	2	D
19/09	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	2-5	7	1	L
05/09	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
30/08	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
26/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
16/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-3	7	6	L
08/08	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
02/08	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
25/07	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Stjørdals/Blink

DWWWWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
20/09	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
13/09	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	0-5	3	3	L
05/09	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	1-3	1	1	L
30/08	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	2-2	7	1	D
16/08	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	4-2	2	2	W
08/08	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-1	0	2	W
01/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	4-2	7	1	W
25/07	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
28/06	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	1-1	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Follo vs Stjørdals/Blink?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Follo win (39%). Probabilities: Follo 39%, draw 24%, Stjørdals/Blink 36%.

How many goals are expected in Follo vs Stjørdals/Blink?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Follo 1.68 · Stjørdals/Blink 1.6), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Follo vs Stjørdals/Blink?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.