Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 29/08, 13:00

Prediction: Nordstrand vs Grei

Team pages: Nordstrand · Grei

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.42Total

Nordstrand2.92

Grei1.5

1X2

66% 17% 17%

Nordstrand Draw Grei

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Nordstrand 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWLWLL

Grei 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLL

Head-to-head

Nordstrand 3–0 Grei (3 last)

Grei1-5Nordstrand
Nordstrand6-0Grei
Grei0-3Nordstrand

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nordstrand 1458 · Grei 1380

	Nordstrand	Draw	Grei
Our model	66%	17%	17%
Market	66%	16%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 4.42 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nordstrand (rating 1458 vs 1380).
H2H favours Nordstrand: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nordstrand	Grei
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.3	1.2 / 3.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.36

X5.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.36▲	Bet365 1.36
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	5.50 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:18 +9’	1.33	5.50	5.50
18:28 +3’	1.36▲	5.50	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nordstrand 3–0–0 Grei

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Grei	1-5 HT 1-3	Nordstrand
01/10/22 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Nordstrand	6-0 HT 3-0	Grei
28/05/22 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Grei	0-3 HT 0-1	Nordstrand

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	16	14	1	1	55	20	43
2	Gamle Oslo	16	11	1	4	60	30	34
3	Baerum	16	10	1	5	56	29	31
4	Heming	16	9	3	4	35	25	30
5	Valerenga 2	16	9	1	6	40	47	28
6	IF Ready	16	7	6	3	38	26	27
7	Frigg	16	7	5	4	39	31	26
8	FK Union Carl Berner	16	7	0	9	25	26	21
9	KFUM 2	16	5	2	9	34	45	17
10	Nordstrand	16	5	1	10	27	40	16
11	Ullern	16	4	2	10	29	41	14
12	Lokomotiv Oslo	16	4	2	10	25	50	14
13	Konnerud	16	4	0	12	24	46	12
14	Grei	16	3	1	12	25	56	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nordstrand	Grei
KFUM 2	2-7 L	0-5 L
Konnerud	3-2 W	3-1 W
Gamle Oslo	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nordstrand

WWDLLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-3	2-7	4	4	L
08/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
01/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-2	5	3	W
25/07	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
27/06	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-1	5-1	4	3	W
20/06	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
06/06	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
30/05	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
23/05	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-1	8	1	W
16/05	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	13	1	W

Grei

LLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-7	2	2	L
08/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
25/07	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
27/06	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	1-5	2	3	L
20/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
13/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	3-5	1	5	L
30/05	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
23/05	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-3	7	9	L
14/05	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nordstrand vs Grei?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nordstrand win (66%). Probabilities: Nordstrand 66%, draw 17%, Grei 17%.

How many goals are expected in Nordstrand vs Grei?

The model expects 4.42 goals (Nordstrand 2.92 · Grei 1.5), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nordstrand vs Grei?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.