Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 30/08, 16:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Oslo vs Ullern

Team pages: Lokomotiv Oslo · Ullern

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.26Total

Lokomotiv Oslo2.08

Ullern2.19

1X2

37% 22% 41%

Lokomotiv Oslo Draw Ullern

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Oslo 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLWD

Ullern 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLDLW

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Oslo 3–1–2 Ullern (6 last)

Ullern2-5Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo4-2Ullern
Lokomotiv Oslo1-2Ullern
Lokomotiv Oslo0-3Ullern
Ullern1-1Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo6-1Ullern

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Oslo 1433 · Ullern 1443

	Lokomotiv Oslo	Draw	Ullern
Our model	37%	21%	41%
Market	37%	22%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 4.26 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lokomotiv Oslo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Oslo	Ullern
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 3.3	1.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.6	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.7	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.45

X4.00

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +2’	2.45	4.00	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Oslo 3–1–2 Ullern

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Ullern	2-5 HT 1-3	Lokomotiv Oslo
08/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Lokomotiv Oslo	4-2 HT 2-1	Ullern
30/10/21 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Lokomotiv Oslo	1-2 HT 1-0	Ullern
24/08/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Lokomotiv Oslo	0-3 HT 0-2	Ullern
13/04/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Ullern	1-1 HT 0-1	Lokomotiv Oslo
27/10/18 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Lokomotiv Oslo	6-1	Ullern

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	16	14	1	1	55	20	43
2	Gamle Oslo	16	11	1	4	60	30	34
3	Baerum	16	10	1	5	56	29	31
4	Heming	16	9	3	4	35	25	30
5	Valerenga 2	16	9	1	6	40	47	28
6	IF Ready	16	7	6	3	38	26	27
7	Frigg	16	7	5	4	39	31	26
8	FK Union Carl Berner	16	7	0	9	25	26	21
9	KFUM 2	16	5	2	9	34	45	17
10	Nordstrand	16	5	1	10	27	40	16
11	Ullern	16	4	2	10	29	41	14
12	Lokomotiv Oslo	16	4	2	10	25	50	14
13	Konnerud	16	4	0	12	24	46	12
14	Grei	16	3	1	12	25	56	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Oslo	Ullern
Frigg	2-2 D	2-2 D
KFUM 2	2-0 W	2-3 L
Gamle Oslo	1-6 L	2-5 L
Asker	0-6 L	2-3 L
Konnerud	3-4 L	2-1 W
FK Union Carl Berner	0-8 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ullern (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lokomotiv Oslo

LLLLLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
01/08	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	2-3	3	6	L
27/07	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
24/06	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-6	4	3	L
20/06	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-3	5	3	L
13/06	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	0-6	0	2	L
31/05	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
25/05	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	3-4	5	3	L
14/05	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-5	0-8	2	2	L

Ullern

LLWWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	4-1	6	1	W
08/08	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
01/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
25/07	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-3	8	4	L
27/06	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
20/06	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	2-3	9	3	L
13/06	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	3-2	2	4	W
30/05	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	14	2	W
25/05	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
16/05	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-2	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Oslo vs Ullern?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ullern win (41%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Oslo 37%, draw 22%, Ullern 41%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Oslo vs Ullern?

The model expects 4.26 goals (Lokomotiv Oslo 2.08 · Ullern 2.19), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Oslo vs Ullern?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.