Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 19/09, 13:00

Prediction: Ullern vs Valerenga 2

Team pages: Ullern · Valerenga 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.56Total

Ullern2.54

Valerenga 22.02

1X2

49% 20% 31%

Ullern Draw Valerenga 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Ullern 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWWLL

Valerenga 2 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWLWW

Head-to-head

Ullern 1–4 Valerenga 2 (5 last)

Valerenga 23-1Ullern
Ullern0-2Valerenga 2
Valerenga 24-1Ullern
Ullern1-0Valerenga 2
Valerenga 22-0Ullern

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ullern 1452 · Valerenga 2 1545

	Ullern	Draw	Valerenga 2
Our model	49%	20%	31%
Market	49%	20%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.56 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerenga 2 (rating 1452 vs 1545).
H2H favours Valerenga 2: 4-0-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ullern	Valerenga 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 3.1	2.7 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.6	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.7	2.6 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.93

Under 4.51.88

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 5.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:14 +32’	1.80	4.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ullern 1–0–4 Valerenga 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Valerenga 2	3-1 HT 0-1	Ullern
17/09/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Ullern	0-2 HT 0-1	Valerenga 2
26/05/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Valerenga 2	4-1 HT 2-0	Ullern
17/10/15 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Ullern	1-0 HT 0-0	Valerenga 2
06/07/15 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Valerenga 2	2-0 HT 1-0	Ullern

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	18	16	1	1	68	24	49
2	Gamle Oslo	19	13	1	5	66	35	40
3	Heming	19	11	3	5	46	30	36
4	Baerum	19	11	2	6	60	35	35
5	Valerenga 2	19	11	1	7	46	54	34
6	IF Ready	19	8	6	5	46	37	30
7	Frigg	18	8	5	5	45	38	29
8	FK Union Carl Berner	18	8	1	9	27	27	25
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	19	6	2	11	35	55	20
10	Ullern	19	5	2	12	37	53	17
11	Nordstrand	19	5	2	12	31	47	17
12	KFUM 2	18	5	2	11	36	55	17
13	Konnerud	19	5	1	13	29	51	16
14	Grei	19	4	1	14	32	63	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ullern	Valerenga 2
IF Ready	3-4 L	4-3 W
Asker	2-6 L	4-5 L
Lokomotiv Oslo	3-2 W	3-2 W
FK Union Carl Berner	4-1 W	2-1 W
Gamle Oslo	2-5 L	2-1 W
Heming	1-3 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga 2 (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ullern

WLLLDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	3-4	12	3	L
05/09	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	2-6	6	1	L
30/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	4-1	6	1	W
08/08	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
01/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
25/07	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-3	8	3	L
27/06	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
20/06	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	2-3	9	3	L
13/06	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	3-2	2	4	W

Valerenga 2

WWWLWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
30/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-5	6	4	L
16/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	10	2	W
08/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-5	4	3	L
01/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	3-2	7	6	W
25/07	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-4	3-6	7	3	L
26/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
21/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/06	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	3-2	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ullern vs Valerenga 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ullern win (49%). Probabilities: Ullern 49%, draw 20%, Valerenga 2 31%.

How many goals are expected in Ullern vs Valerenga 2?

The model expects 4.56 goals (Ullern 2.54 · Valerenga 2 2.02), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ullern vs Valerenga 2?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.