Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 30/08, 14:00

Prediction: Honefoss vs Follo

Team pages: Honefoss · Follo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.2Total

Honefoss3.05

Follo1.15

1X2

75% 15% 11%

Honefoss Draw Follo

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Honefoss 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWWWWL

Follo 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLLLD

Head-to-head

Honefoss 5–1–0 Follo (6 last)

Follo2-2Honefoss
Honefoss3-1Follo
Follo2-3Honefoss
Honefoss2-1Follo
Honefoss1-0Follo
Honefoss2-1Follo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Honefoss 1571 · Follo 1407

	Honefoss	Draw	Follo
Our model	75%	15%	11%
Market	75%	15%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Honefoss (rating 1571 vs 1407).
H2H favours Honefoss: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Honefoss	Follo
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.9	0.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.90

2 (+2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.26 ★
X	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.27
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +7’	1.20	6.00	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:58 +11’	1.26	6.27	7.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Honefoss 5–1–0 Follo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Follo	2-2 HT 0-1	Honefoss
27/09/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Honefoss	3-1 HT 1-0	Follo
11/05/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Follo	2-3 HT 1-1	Honefoss
13/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Honefoss	2-1 HT 0-1	Follo
16/10/21 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Honefoss	1-0	Follo
04/10/15 Norway Division 1	Honefoss	2-1 HT 0-0	Follo

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	16	12	2	2	41	14	38
2	Kjelsås	16	12	1	3	36	21	37
3	Levanger	16	11	0	5	35	19	33
4	Honefoss	16	10	2	4	44	24	32
5	Grorud	15	8	2	5	24	15	26
6	Lørenskog	16	8	2	6	27	24	26
7	Stjørdals/Blink	16	7	2	7	29	28	23
8	Tromsdalen	15	7	2	6	24	27	23
9	Rana FK	16	6	3	7	30	31	21
10	Junkeren	16	6	2	8	22	28	20
11	Skeid	16	4	1	11	22	34	13
12	Follo	16	2	4	10	19	35	10
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	16	3	1	12	21	54	10
14	Trygg/Lade	16	2	2	12	19	39	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Honefoss	Follo
Ullensaker/Kisa	9-1 W	1-2 L
Lørenskog	3-1 W	0-1 L
Skeid	3-1 W	0-2 L
Kjelsås	3-1 W	1-4 L
Junkeren	3-4 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Honefoss (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Honefoss

WLDLWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-4	7	2	L
08/08	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	9-1	–	–	W
01/08	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-1	9	3	W
25/07	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
27/06	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-1	5	4	W
21/06	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
14/06	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-2	3-4	7	1	L
31/05	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/05	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	2-3	6	6	L
14/05	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-2	8	4	W

Follo

LLLLLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
16/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-3	7	6	L
08/08	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
02/08	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
25/07	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/06	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
12/06	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-3	1-4	4	2	L
30/05	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	6	7	L
23/05	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	0-2	6	5	L
16/05	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Honefoss vs Follo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Honefoss win (75%). Probabilities: Honefoss 75%, draw 15%, Follo 11%.

How many goals are expected in Honefoss vs Follo?

The model expects 4.2 goals (Honefoss 3.05 · Follo 1.15), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Honefoss vs Follo?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.