Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 06/09, 15:30

Prediction: Trygg/Lade vs Honefoss

Team pages: Trygg/Lade · Honefoss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

Trygg/Lade1.4

Honefoss2.46

1X2

20% 19% 60%

Trygg/Lade Draw Honefoss

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Trygg/Lade 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLDD

Honefoss 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Trygg/Lade 0–1 Honefoss (1 last)

Honefoss3-1Trygg/Lade

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trygg/Lade 1444 · Honefoss 1570

	Trygg/Lade	Draw	Honefoss
Our model	20%	20%	60%
Market	21%	19%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Honefoss (rating 1444 vs 1570).
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trygg/Lade	Honefoss
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.9	3.3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.80

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	4.80 → 4.80	Bet365 4.80
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:34 +28’	4.33	4.80	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Trygg/Lade 0–0–1 Honefoss

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Honefoss	3-1 HT 0-1	Trygg/Lade

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	18	13	3	2	44	15	42
2	Kjelsås	18	13	1	4	40	26	40
3	Levanger	17	12	0	5	40	19	36
4	Honefoss	17	11	2	4	46	25	35
5	Grorud	16	8	3	5	24	15	27
6	Lørenskog	17	8	2	7	27	29	26
7	Rana FK	17	7	3	7	32	32	24
8	Stjørdals/Blink	18	7	3	8	32	33	24
9	Tromsdalen	17	7	2	8	25	31	23
10	Junkeren	17	6	3	8	24	30	21
11	Skeid	18	5	2	11	27	36	17
12	Follo	18	3	4	11	21	37	13
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	17	3	1	13	22	56	10
14	Trygg/Lade	17	2	3	12	20	40	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trygg/Lade	Honefoss
Skeid	1-1 D	3-1 W
Ullensaker/Kisa	1-1 D	9-1 W
Grorud	0-1 L	2-3 L
Follo	2-1 W	2-1 W
Eidsvold TF	1-2 L	2-1 W
Lørenskog	1-4 L	3-1 W
Stjørdals/Blink	1-2 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Honefoss (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trygg/Lade

LLLLLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
16/08	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
02/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-1	10	2	W
26/07	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-2	2	1	L
28/06	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-7	1	2	L
21/06	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-4	8	6	L
14/06	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
31/05	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
24/05	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	1-2	9	5	L

Honefoss

LDLWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-1	11	3	W
16/08	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-4	7	2	L
08/08	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	9-1	–	–	W
01/08	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-1	9	3	W
25/07	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
27/06	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-1	5	4	W
21/06	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
14/06	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-2	3-4	7	1	L
31/05	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/05	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	2-3	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trygg/Lade vs Honefoss?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Honefoss win (60%). Probabilities: Trygg/Lade 20%, draw 19%, Honefoss 60%.

How many goals are expected in Trygg/Lade vs Honefoss?

The model expects 3.86 goals (Trygg/Lade 1.4 · Honefoss 2.46), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Trygg/Lade vs Honefoss?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.