Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 05/09, 14:00

Prediction: Skeid vs Kjelsås

Team pages: Skeid · Kjelsås

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Skeid1.33

Kjelsås2.02

1X2

24% 23% 53%

Skeid Draw Kjelsås

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Skeid 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLLLLD

Kjelsås 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWWLWW

Head-to-head

Skeid 1–3–2 Kjelsås (6 last)

Kjelsås1-0Skeid
Kjelsås0-0Skeid
Skeid1-0Kjelsås
Skeid1-4Kjelsås
Skeid0-0Kjelsås
Kjelsås3-3Skeid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Skeid 1457 · Kjelsås 1573

	Skeid	Draw	Kjelsås
Our model	24%	23%	53%
Market	24%	23%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kjelsås (rating 1457 vs 1573).
H2H favours Kjelsås: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Skeid	Kjelsås
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.4	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.5	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.4	2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.70

X4.00

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.77 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:40 +12’	3.70	4.00	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:52	3.73	3.79	1.78
15:50	3.75▲	3.86▲	1.77▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Skeid 1–3–2 Kjelsås

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Kjelsås	1-0 HT 1-0	Skeid
31/08/24 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Kjelsås	0-0 HT 0-0	Skeid
19/04/24 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Skeid	1-0 HT 0-0	Kjelsås
28/03/24 Europe Friendlies	Skeid	1-4 HT 1-3	Kjelsås
19/02/23 Europe Friendlies	Skeid	0-0 HT 0-0	Kjelsås
29/06/22 Norway Cup	Kjelsås	3-3 HT 2-1	Skeid

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kjelsås	17	13	1	3	39	22	40
2	Eidsvold TF	17	12	3	2	41	14	39
3	Levanger	17	12	0	5	40	19	36
4	Honefoss	17	11	2	4	46	25	35
5	Grorud	16	8	3	5	24	15	27
6	Lørenskog	17	8	2	7	27	29	26
7	Stjørdals/Blink	17	7	3	7	31	30	24
8	Rana FK	17	7	3	7	32	32	24
9	Tromsdalen	16	7	2	7	25	30	23
10	Junkeren	17	6	3	8	24	30	21
11	Skeid	17	4	2	11	23	35	14
12	Follo	17	2	4	11	20	37	10
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	17	3	1	13	22	56	10
14	Trygg/Lade	17	2	3	12	20	40	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Skeid	Kjelsås
Levanger	0-5 L	4-1 W
Rana FK	0-2 L	3-2 W
Honefoss	1-3 L	1-3 L
Tromsdalen	0-2 L	3-1 W
Follo	2-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kjelsås (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Skeid

WLDLWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-4	0-5	5	2	L
09/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-3	1-5	3	3	L
25/07	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
28/06	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	7-1	2	2	W
20/06	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
14/06	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-2	3-3	2	2	D
31/05	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
23/05	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	2-0	4	5	W

Kjelsås

DLWWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/08	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
08/08	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-1	4-1	5	3	W
26/07	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
27/06	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
20/06	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	3-0	2	1	W
12/06	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-1	4-1	1	2	W
30/05	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
23/05	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	1-1	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Skeid vs Kjelsås?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kjelsås win (53%). Probabilities: Skeid 24%, draw 23%, Kjelsås 53%.

How many goals are expected in Skeid vs Kjelsås?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Skeid 1.33 · Kjelsås 2.02), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Skeid vs Kjelsås?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.