Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 30/08, 15:00

Prediction: Trygg/Lade vs Skeid

Team pages: Trygg/Lade · Skeid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Trygg/Lade1.58

Skeid1.81

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Trygg/Lade Draw Skeid

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Trygg/Lade 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Skeid 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Trygg/Lade 0–1 Skeid (1 last)

Skeid7-1Trygg/Lade

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trygg/Lade 1444 · Skeid 1455

	Trygg/Lade	Draw	Skeid
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trygg/Lade	Skeid
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.5	1.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.9 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4.8	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.81 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.79
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.12

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:41 +12’	2.70	3.75	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:45 +8’	2.81	3.79	2.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Trygg/Lade 0–0–1 Skeid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Skeid	7-1 HT 2-1	Trygg/Lade

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	16	12	2	2	41	14	38
2	Kjelsås	16	12	1	3	36	21	37
3	Levanger	16	11	0	5	35	19	33
4	Honefoss	16	10	2	4	44	24	32
5	Grorud	15	8	2	5	24	15	26
6	Lørenskog	16	8	2	6	27	24	26
7	Stjørdals/Blink	16	7	2	7	29	28	23
8	Tromsdalen	15	7	2	6	24	27	23
9	Rana FK	16	6	3	7	30	31	21
10	Junkeren	16	6	2	8	22	28	20
11	Skeid	16	4	1	11	22	34	13
12	Follo	16	2	4	10	19	35	10
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	16	3	1	12	21	54	10
14	Trygg/Lade	16	2	2	12	19	39	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trygg/Lade	Skeid
Grorud	0-1 L	1-5 L
Follo	2-1 W	2-0 W
Tromsdalen	1-2 L	0-2 L
Levanger	0-3 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Trygg/Lade (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trygg/Lade

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
02/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-1	10	2	W
26/07	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-2	2	1	L
28/06	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-7	1	2	L
21/06	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-4	8	6	L
14/06	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
31/05	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
24/05	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
16/05	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	0-3	6	3	L

Skeid

LWLDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-4	0-5	5	2	L
09/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-3	1-5	3	3	L
25/07	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
28/06	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	7-1	2	2	W
20/06	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
14/06	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-2	3-3	2	2	D
31/05	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
23/05	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
16/05	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-1	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trygg/Lade vs Skeid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Skeid win (43%). Probabilities: Trygg/Lade 33%, draw 24%, Skeid 43%.

How many goals are expected in Trygg/Lade vs Skeid?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Trygg/Lade 1.58 · Skeid 1.81), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Trygg/Lade vs Skeid?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.