Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 03/10, 14:00

Prediction: Skeid vs Honefoss

Team pages: Skeid · Honefoss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.18Total

Skeid1.7

Honefoss2.48

1X2

25% 21% 54%

Skeid Draw Honefoss

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Skeid 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWLLL

Honefoss 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Skeid 0–1–1 Honefoss (2 last)

Honefoss3-1Skeid
Honefoss2-2Skeid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Skeid 1427 · Honefoss 1575

	Skeid	Draw	Honefoss
Our model	25%	20%	54%
Market	25%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 4.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Honefoss (rating 1427 vs 1575).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Skeid	Honefoss
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.9	2.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	3.9 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.10

21.67

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.83

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.38 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.52
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +7’	3.60	4.10	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +14’	4.38	4.52	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Skeid 0–1–1 Honefoss

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Honefoss	3-1 HT 2-1	Skeid
07/03/26 Europe Friendlies	Honefoss	2-2 HT 2-0	Skeid

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	20	15	3	2	48	16	48
2	Levanger	20	15	0	5	51	21	45
3	Kjelsås	21	14	2	5	49	31	44
4	Honefoss	20	13	3	4	51	28	42
5	Grorud	20	11	4	5	34	20	37
6	Stjørdals/Blink	21	9	3	9	37	38	30
7	Lørenskog	20	9	3	8	29	32	30
8	Tromsdalen	20	9	2	9	34	34	29
9	Junkeren	21	8	4	9	29	35	28
10	Rana FK	21	8	3	10	36	38	27
11	Skeid	20	5	2	13	27	43	17
12	Follo	21	3	5	13	25	45	14
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	21	3	1	17	25	70	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	2	3	15	23	47	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Skeid	Honefoss
Lørenskog	1-4 L	3-1 W
Tromsdalen	0-6 L	2-1 W
Kjelsås	4-1 W	3-1 W
Trygg/Lade	1-1 D	3-2 W
Rana FK	0-2 L	1-0 W
Grorud	1-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Honefoss (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Skeid

WLLLLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
20/09	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	0-6	–	–	L
13/09	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
05/09	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	4-1	4	5	W
30/08	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-4	0-5	5	2	L
09/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-3	1-5	3	3	L
25/07	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
28/06	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	7-1	2	2	W

Honefoss

WWWWLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
19/09	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
30/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-1	11	3	W
16/08	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-4	7	2	L
08/08	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	9-1	–	–	W
01/08	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-1	9	3	W
25/07	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
27/06	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Skeid vs Honefoss?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Honefoss win (54%). Probabilities: Skeid 25%, draw 21%, Honefoss 54%.

How many goals are expected in Skeid vs Honefoss?

The model expects 4.18 goals (Skeid 1.7 · Honefoss 2.48), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Skeid vs Honefoss?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.