Football · Brazil Serie A · 09/10, 01:00

Prediction: Athletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro

Team pages: Athletico Paranaense · Atletico Mineiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Athletico Paranaense1.67

Atletico Mineiro1.23

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Athletico Paranaense Draw Atletico Mineiro

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletico Paranaense 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDLDW

Atletico Mineiro 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWLWD

Head-to-head

Athletico Paranaense 1–1–4 Atletico Mineiro (6 last)

Atletico Mineiro2-1Athletico Paranaense
Atletico Mineiro1-0Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense1-0Atletico Mineiro
Athletico Paranaense1-1Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro2-1Athletico Paranaense
Atletico Mineiro2-1Athletico Paranaense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletico Paranaense 1537 · Atletico Mineiro 1554

	Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Mineiro: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletico Paranaense	Atletico Mineiro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.25

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.07
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.95 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:52 +3’	2.05	3.25	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:00 +295’	2.07	3.19	3.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletico Paranaense 1–1–4 Atletico Mineiro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	2-1 HT 1-0	Athletico Paranaense
08/12/24 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-0 HT 0-0	Athletico Paranaense
16/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro
02/09/23 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Mineiro
24/05/23 Copa Libertadores	Atletico Mineiro	2-1 HT 0-0	Athletico Paranaense
30/04/23 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	2-1 HT 1-0	Athletico Paranaense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	57
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	48
5	EC Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
7	Atletico Mineiro	27	11	7	9	36	32	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	38
10	Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Vasco da Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletico Paranaense	Atletico Mineiro
EC Bahia	2-1 W	1-1 D
Fluminense	3-3 D	3-1 W
Internacional	2-0 W	0-0 D
Sao Paulo	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Athletico Paranaense (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletico Paranaense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	3	8	D
06/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
30/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	8	4	D
25/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
15/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
09/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
31/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
23/07	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	3	1	W

Atletico Mineiro

WDWDWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
12/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
05/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W
08/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
27/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletico Paranaense win (46%). Probabilities: Athletico Paranaense 46%, draw 28%, Atletico Mineiro 26%.

How many goals are expected in Athletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Athletico Paranaense 1.67 · Atletico Mineiro 1.23), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.