Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 2 · 16/08, 07:45
Prediction: Brisbane Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior B
Team pages: Brisbane Knights · Moreton City Excelsior B
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.31Total
Brisbane Knights1.67
Moreton City Excelsior B2.65
1X2
Brisbane Knights
Draw
Moreton City Excelsior B
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Brisbane Knights
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Moreton City Excelsior B
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brisbane Knights
0–3
Moreton City Excelsior B
(3 last)
- Moreton City Excelsior B8-0Brisbane Knights
- Moreton City Excelsior B5-1Brisbane Knights
- Brisbane Knights1-8Moreton City Excelsior B
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brisbane Knights 1519 · Moreton City Excelsior B 1504
| Brisbane Knights | Draw | Moreton City Excelsior B | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 19% | 58% |
| Market | 22% | 20% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.31 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Moreton City Excelsior B: 3-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brisbane Knights | Moreton City Excelsior B | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.7 | 2.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/0/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 0.5 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Knights 0–0–3 Moreton City Excelsior B
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 8-0 HT 5-0 | Brisbane Knights |
| 03/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Brisbane Knights |
| 03/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Brisbane Knights | 1-8 HT 1-2 | Moreton City Excelsior B |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SWQ Thunder | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 25 | 42 |
| 2 | Grange Thistle | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 46 | 24 | 41 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 35 |
| 4 | Pine Hills | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 32 | 32 |
| 5 | Souths United | 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 39 | 31 |
| 6 | Caloundra | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 50 | 29 |
| 7 | Virginia United | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 31 | 29 |
| 8 | Taringa Rovers | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 42 | 28 |
| 9 | Brisbane Knights | 21 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 28 |
| 10 | Mitchelton FC | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 42 | 27 |
| 11 | Southside Eagles | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 45 | 25 |
| 12 | Samford Rangers | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 21 | 61 | 12 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane Knights | Moreton City Excelsior B |
|---|---|---|
| Pine Hills | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Mitchelton FC | 3-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Virginia United | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Grange Thistle | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Taringa Rovers | 3-1 W | 5-0 W |
| SWQ Thunder | 0-3 L | 3-3 D |
| Souths United | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Caloundra | 6-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Southside Eagles | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Samford Rangers | 0-1 L | 8-2 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 4 L | 4 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Brisbane Knights (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane Knights
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/07 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 17/07 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 01/07 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 6-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
Moreton City Excelsior B
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 04/07 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 8-2 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brisbane Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior B?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Moreton City Excelsior B win (58%). Probabilities: Brisbane Knights 23%, draw 20%, Moreton City Excelsior B 58%.
How many goals are expected in Brisbane Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior B?
The model expects 4.31 goals (Brisbane Knights 1.67 · Moreton City Excelsior B 2.65), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Brisbane Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior B?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.