Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 2 · 09/08, 08:45
Prediction: Samford Rangers vs Grange Thistle
Team pages: Samford Rangers · Grange Thistle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.81Total
Samford Rangers0.9
Grange Thistle2.9
1X2
Samford Rangers
Draw
Grange Thistle
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Samford Rangers
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Grange Thistle
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Samford Rangers
0–4–2
Grange Thistle
(6 last)
- Grange Thistle2-0Samford Rangers
- Grange Thistle3-1Samford Rangers
- Samford Rangers1-1Grange Thistle
- Grange Thistle2-2Samford Rangers
- Samford Rangers3-3Grange Thistle
- Samford Rangers3-3Grange Thistle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Samford Rangers 1406 · Grange Thistle 1566
| Samford Rangers | Draw | Grange Thistle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 14% | 77% |
| Market | 8% | 11% | 81% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.81 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grange Thistle (rating 1406 vs 1566).
- H2H favours Grange Thistle: 2-4-0.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Samford Rangers | Grange Thistle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 3.7 | 2.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.7 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.5 | 3.8 / 8.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Samford Rangers 0–4–2 Grange Thistle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Grange Thistle | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Samford Rangers |
| 28/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Grange Thistle | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Samford Rangers |
| 15/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Samford Rangers | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Grange Thistle |
| 07/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Grange Thistle | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Samford Rangers |
| 05/04/24 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Samford Rangers | 3-3 HT 0-0 | Grange Thistle |
| 23/07/23 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Samford Rangers | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Grange Thistle |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grange Thistle | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 46 | 24 | 40 |
| 2 | SWQ Thunder | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 23 | 39 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 29 | 35 |
| 4 | Pine Hills | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 30 | 32 |
| 5 | Souths United | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 37 | 31 |
| 6 | Caloundra | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 46 | 48 | 29 |
| 7 | Virginia United | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 30 | 26 |
| 8 | Southside Eagles | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 40 | 25 |
| 9 | Taringa Rovers | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 25 |
| 10 | Brisbane Knights | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 47 | 25 |
| 11 | Mitchelton FC | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 41 | 24 |
| 12 | Samford Rangers | 20 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 | 61 | 11 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Samford Rangers | Grange Thistle |
|---|---|---|
| SWQ Thunder | 1-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Southside Eagles | 1-7 L | 2-1 W |
| Souths United | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Mitchelton FC | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Pine Hills | 1-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior B | 2-8 L | 4-0 W |
| Virginia United | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Brisbane Knights | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 6 L | 6 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Grange Thistle (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Samford Rangers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-4 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 26/07 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-7 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 05/07 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-4 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 2-8 | – | – | L |
| 09/06 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
Grange Thistle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 15 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/06 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/06 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Samford Rangers vs Grange Thistle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Grange Thistle win (79%). Probabilities: Samford Rangers 8%, draw 12%, Grange Thistle 79%.
How many goals are expected in Samford Rangers vs Grange Thistle?
The model expects 3.81 goals (Samford Rangers 0.9 · Grange Thistle 2.9), with a 59% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Samford Rangers vs Grange Thistle?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.