Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 2 · 16/08, 07:45
Prediction: Grange Thistle vs Caloundra
Team pages: Grange Thistle · Caloundra
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.73Total
Grange Thistle2.48
Caloundra1.24
1X2
Grange Thistle
Draw
Caloundra
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Grange Thistle
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Caloundra
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Grange Thistle
0–1–0
Caloundra
(1 last)
- Caloundra2-2Grange Thistle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grange Thistle 1561 · Caloundra 1448
| Grange Thistle | Draw | Caloundra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Market | 64% | 19% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.73 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grange Thistle (rating 1561 vs 1448).
- High corners: 16.3 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Grange Thistle | Caloundra | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.7 | 1.7 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 7.8 | 4.5 / 8.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Grange Thistle 0–1–0 Caloundra
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Caloundra | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Grange Thistle |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SWQ Thunder | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 25 | 42 |
| 2 | Grange Thistle | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 46 | 24 | 41 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 35 |
| 4 | Pine Hills | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 32 | 32 |
| 5 | Souths United | 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 39 | 31 |
| 6 | Caloundra | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 50 | 29 |
| 7 | Virginia United | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 31 | 29 |
| 8 | Taringa Rovers | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 42 | 28 |
| 9 | Brisbane Knights | 21 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 28 |
| 10 | Mitchelton FC | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 42 | 27 |
| 11 | Southside Eagles | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 45 | 25 |
| 12 | Samford Rangers | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 21 | 61 | 12 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Grange Thistle | Caloundra |
|---|---|---|
| Samford Rangers | 0-0 D | 5-1 W |
| Pine Hills | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Moreton City Excelsior B | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Brisbane Knights | 1-2 L | 2-6 L |
| Virginia United | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Mitchelton FC | 1-2 L | 2-6 L |
| SWQ Thunder | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Taringa Rovers | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Southside Eagles | 2-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Souths United | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Grange Thistle (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grange Thistle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 15 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/06 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/06 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Caloundra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 11/07 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 2-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 2-6 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grange Thistle vs Caloundra?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Grange Thistle win (64%). Probabilities: Grange Thistle 64%, draw 19%, Caloundra 17%.
How many goals are expected in Grange Thistle vs Caloundra?
The model expects 3.73 goals (Grange Thistle 2.48 · Caloundra 1.24), with a 56% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Grange Thistle vs Caloundra?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.