Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 2 · 17/07, 12:30
Prediction: Brisbane Knights vs Grange Thistle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.29Total
Brisbane Knights1.55
Grange Thistle2.74
1X2
Brisbane Knights
Draw
Grange Thistle
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Brisbane Knights
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Grange Thistle
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brisbane Knights
1–1–4
Grange Thistle
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brisbane Knights 1456 · Grange Thistle 1555
| Brisbane Knights | Draw | Grange Thistle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 18% | 62% |
| Market | 20% | 18% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grange Thistle (rating 1456 vs 1555).
- H2H favours Grange Thistle: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brisbane Knights | Grange Thistle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.8 | 1.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 3.8 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Knights 1–1–4 Grange Thistle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Grange Thistle | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Brisbane Knights |
| 19/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Grange Thistle | 6-2 HT 1-0 | Brisbane Knights |
| 11/04/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Brisbane Knights | 4-4 HT 2-2 | Grange Thistle |
| 06/09/20 Australia Brisbane Premier League | Grange Thistle | 4-2 HT 3-2 | Brisbane Knights |
| 03/08/19 Australia Brisbane Premier League | Grange Thistle | 3-4 HT 1-3 | Brisbane Knights |
| 28/06/19 Australia Brisbane Premier League | Brisbane Knights | 2-5 HT 0-2 | Grange Thistle |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grange Thistle | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 21 | 34 |
| 2 | SWQ Thunder | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 19 | 33 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 46 | 24 | 29 |
| 4 | Caloundra | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 41 | 28 |
| 5 | Pine Hills | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 27 | 26 |
| 6 | Virginia United | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 25 | 23 |
| 7 | Taringa Rovers | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 35 | 22 |
| 8 | Souths United | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 34 | 22 |
| 9 | Mitchelton FC | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 36 | 21 |
| 10 | Southside Eagles | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 34 | 21 |
| 11 | Brisbane Knights | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 41 | 19 |
| 12 | Samford Rangers | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 47 | 11 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane Knights | Grange Thistle |
|---|---|---|
| Taringa Rovers | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| SWQ Thunder | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Souths United | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Caloundra | 6-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Southside Eagles | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Samford Rangers | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Pine Hills | 1-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Mitchelton FC | 3-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 5 L | 4 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Grange Thistle (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane Knights
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 01/07 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 6-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-5 | 0-8 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
Grange Thistle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/06 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/06 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 29/04 | Gold Coast United Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brisbane Knights vs Grange Thistle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Grange Thistle win (62%). Probabilities: Brisbane Knights 20%, draw 18%, Grange Thistle 62%.
How many goals are expected in Brisbane Knights vs Grange Thistle?
The model expects 4.29 goals (Brisbane Knights 1.55 · Grange Thistle 2.74), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Brisbane Knights vs Grange Thistle?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.