Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 2 · 24/07, 12:00

Prediction: Mitchelton FC vs Souths United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

Mitchelton FC2.32

Souths United1.68

1X2

52% 21% 27%

Mitchelton FC Draw Souths United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mitchelton FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWWDW

Souths United 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Mitchelton FC 3–1–2 Souths United (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mitchelton FC 1523 · Souths United 1439

	Mitchelton FC	Draw	Souths United
Our model	52%	21%	27%
Market	52%	21%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mitchelton FC (rating 1523 vs 1439).
H2H favours Mitchelton FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mitchelton FC	Souths United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 2.2	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	3.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.33

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.05

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:55 +11’	1.73	4.33	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mitchelton FC 3–1–2 Souths United

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2	Souths United	2-1 HT 1-1	Mitchelton FC
19/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2	Mitchelton FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Souths United
15/04/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2	Souths United	3-0	Mitchelton FC
04/09/21 Australia Queensland Premier League	Souths United	1-2 HT 0-1	Mitchelton FC
04/06/21 Australia Queensland Premier League	Mitchelton FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Souths United
03/10/20 Australia Queensland Premier League	Souths United	4-4 HT 2-2	Mitchelton FC

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Grange Thistle	18	10	4	4	40	23	34
2	SWQ Thunder	18	10	3	5	38	22	33
3	Moreton City Excelsior B	18	9	5	4	51	24	32
4	Pine Hills	18	8	5	5	35	28	29
5	Caloundra	18	9	2	7	46	44	29
6	Souths United	18	8	1	9	29	35	25
7	Mitchelton FC	18	7	3	8	37	36	24
8	Virginia United	18	7	2	9	22	28	23
9	Southside Eagles	18	6	4	8	32	37	22
10	Brisbane Knights	18	7	1	10	31	42	22
11	Taringa Rovers	18	6	4	8	28	40	22
12	Samford Rangers	18	3	2	13	19	49	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mitchelton FC	Souths United
Virginia United	3-0 W	0-3 L
Samford Rangers	1-1 D	2-1 W
Grange Thistle	2-1 W	0-4 L
Caloundra	6-2 W	1-2 L
Taringa Rovers	5-2 W	5-0 W
Pine Hills	2-4 L	1-3 L
SWQ Thunder	0-2 L	0-3 L
Moreton City Excelsior B	1-2 L	0-1 L
Southside Eagles	4-5 L	0-1 L
Brisbane Knights	4-3 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: Mitchelton FC (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mitchelton FC

WLLLLWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/07	Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
04/07	Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
21/06	Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2	2-1	6-2	4	4	W
13/06	Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2	1-1	5-2	–	–	W
05/06	Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-2	2-4	8	0	L
31/05	SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-2	0-2	7	0	L
23/05	Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
16/05	Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2	2-1	4-5	3	1	L
02/05	Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2	2-2	4-3	5	7	W

Souths United

LLWLLLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2	2-0	2-1	11	1	W
11/07	Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/07	Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
01/07	Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
20/06	Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
06/06	Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
02/06	Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
23/05	Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2	2-0	5-0	7	1	W
16/05	SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-0	0-3	3	2	L
03/05	Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mitchelton FC vs Souths United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mitchelton FC win (52%). Probabilities: Mitchelton FC 52%, draw 21%, Souths United 27%.

How many goals are expected in Mitchelton FC vs Souths United?

The model expects 3.99 goals (Mitchelton FC 2.32 · Souths United 1.68), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Mitchelton FC vs Souths United?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.