Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 2 · 25/07, 09:00

Prediction: Grange Thistle vs Moreton City Excelsior B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Grange Thistle1.84

Moreton City Excelsior B1.84

1X2

39% 23% 39%

Grange Thistle Draw Moreton City Excelsior B

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Grange Thistle 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Moreton City Excelsior B 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Grange Thistle 1–2 Moreton City Excelsior B (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grange Thistle 1549 · Moreton City Excelsior B 1529

	Grange Thistle	Draw	Moreton City Excelsior B
Our model	38%	23%	38%
Market	39%	22%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Moreton City Excelsior B: 2-0-1.
High corners: 14.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grange Thistle	Moreton City Excelsior B
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 8.7	3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:07 +2’	2.30	4.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grange Thistle 1–0–2 Moreton City Excelsior B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2	Moreton City Excelsior B	2-3 HT 0-3	Grange Thistle
07/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2	Moreton City Excelsior B	2-0 HT 0-0	Grange Thistle
10/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2	Grange Thistle	1-2 HT 0-1	Moreton City Excelsior B

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Grange Thistle	18	10	4	4	40	23	34
2	SWQ Thunder	18	10	3	5	38	22	33
3	Moreton City Excelsior B	18	9	5	4	51	24	32
4	Pine Hills	18	8	5	5	35	28	29
5	Caloundra	18	9	2	7	46	44	29
6	Souths United	18	8	1	9	29	35	25
7	Mitchelton FC	18	7	3	8	37	36	24
8	Virginia United	18	7	2	9	22	28	23
9	Southside Eagles	18	6	4	8	32	37	22
10	Brisbane Knights	18	7	1	10	31	42	22
11	Taringa Rovers	18	6	4	8	28	40	22
12	Samford Rangers	18	3	2	13	19	49	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grange Thistle	Moreton City Excelsior B
Brisbane Knights	1-2 L	8-0 W
Virginia United	3-0 W	1-1 D
Mitchelton FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
SWQ Thunder	2-1 W	3-3 D
Taringa Rovers	0-0 D	5-0 W
Southside Eagles	2-1 W	0-2 L
Souths United	4-0 W	1-0 W
Samford Rangers	2-0 W	8-2 W
Caloundra	2-2 D	1-2 L
Pine Hills	3-3 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Grange Thistle (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grange Thistle

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2	1-1	1-2	15	1	L
11/07	Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
04/07	Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
25/06	SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
20/06	Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
06/06	Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	8	5	W
02/06	Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
24/05	Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
16/05	Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2	2-1	3-3	7	3	D

Moreton City Excelsior B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2	2-0	5-0	3	4	W
11/07	SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2	3-1	3-3	–	–	D
04/07	Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
20/06	Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
13/06	Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2	3-1	8-2	–	–	W
06/06	Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
30/05	Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-1	1-1	1	1	D
23/05	Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
17/05	Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2	5-0	8-0	10	1	W
03/05	Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	10	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grange Thistle vs Moreton City Excelsior B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grange Thistle win (39%). Probabilities: Grange Thistle 39%, draw 23%, Moreton City Excelsior B 39%.

How many goals are expected in Grange Thistle vs Moreton City Excelsior B?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Grange Thistle 1.84 · Moreton City Excelsior B 1.84), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Grange Thistle vs Moreton City Excelsior B?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.