Football · Brazil Serie A · 23/08, 21:00

Prediction: Vitoria vs EC Bahia

Team pages: Vitoria · EC Bahia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Vitoria1.27

EC Bahia1.19

1X2

37% 30% 33%

Vitoria Draw EC Bahia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vitoria 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLLWLW

EC Bahia 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDDDDD

Head-to-head

Vitoria 1–2–3 EC Bahia (6 last)

EC Bahia1-1Vitoria
EC Bahia2-1Vitoria
Vitoria0-1EC Bahia
Vitoria2-1EC Bahia
EC Bahia2-1Vitoria
Vitoria1-1EC Bahia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitoria 1503 · EC Bahia 1525

	Vitoria	Draw	EC Bahia
Our model	37%	30%	33%
Market	37%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours EC Bahia: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vitoria	EC Bahia
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 23:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.60▲	Bet365 2.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.22 ★
2	2.70 → 2.88▲	Pinn 2.88

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 4.5% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +2’	2.55	3.20	2.70
05:20 +29’	2.45▼	3.20	2.80▲
05:45 +9’	2.55▲	3.20	2.90▲
23:44 +2’	2.60▲	3.20	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:39	2.67	3.24	2.75
03:06	2.65▼	3.24	2.77▲
04:20	2.64▼	3.24	2.78▲
17:25 +1’	2.62▼	3.24	2.80▲
04:05 +2’	2.60▼	3.24	2.82▲
23:21	2.50▼	3.24	2.95▲
21:45 +5’	2.53▲	3.21▼	2.93▼
03:39 +1’	2.58▲	3.21	2.87▼
06:13 +1’	2.59▲	3.21	2.86▼
16:26 +1’	2.58▼	3.22▲	2.87▲
23:46	2.57▼	3.22	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 1–2–3 EC Bahia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/03/26 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-1 HT 1-1	Vitoria
07/03/26 Brazil Campeonato Baiano	EC Bahia	2-1 HT 0-1	Vitoria
25/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Baiano	Vitoria	0-1 HT 0-0	EC Bahia
17/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	2-1 HT 1-1	EC Bahia
18/05/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	2-1 HT 1-0	Vitoria
23/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Baiano	Vitoria	1-1 HT 0-0	EC Bahia

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	40	19	48
2	Flamengo	22	13	6	3	44	19	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	34	28	38
5	Cruzeiro	23	10	6	7	32	32	36
6	EC Bahia	23	8	10	5	32	28	34
7	Bragantino	22	9	5	8	27	23	32
8	Atletico Mineiro	22	9	5	8	30	27	32
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	23	8	5	10	23	33	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	22	6	7	9	24	30	25
16	Internacional	23	5	9	9	24	28	24
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	23	5	8	10	27	37	23
19	Vasco da Gama	22	5	7	10	23	34	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitoria	EC Bahia
Botafogo	1-0 W	2-1 W
Vasco da Gama	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Vitoria (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vitoria

WWWDLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
10/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
07/08	Athletico Paranaense Copa do Brasil	2-0	4-0	7	8	W
04/08	Athletico Paranaense Copa do Brasil	0-1	0-2	0	6	L
30/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	6	7	L
27/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
24/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
06/06	Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
03/06	Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste	0-0	2-1	7	8	W

EC Bahia

LWWLWDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
09/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
30/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
26/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
22/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
18/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
12/07	Fluminense America Friendlies	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
04/07	Torque America Friendlies	1-1	4-1	5	5	W
30/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	10	9	W
26/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs EC Bahia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitoria win (37%). Probabilities: Vitoria 37%, draw 30%, EC Bahia 33%.

How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs EC Bahia?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Vitoria 1.27 · EC Bahia 1.19), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vitoria vs EC Bahia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.