Football · Georgia First League · 29/08, 14:30

Prediction: Merani Martvili vs FC Gareji

Team pages: Merani Martvili · FC Gareji

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Merani Martvili1.15

FC Gareji0.96

1X2

40% 30% 30%

Merani Martvili Draw FC Gareji

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Merani Martvili 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWLLDL

FC Gareji 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDLDLW

Head-to-head

Merani Martvili 1–5 FC Gareji (6 last)

FC Gareji1-0Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili1-0FC Gareji
FC Gareji6-1Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili1-4FC Gareji
FC Gareji5-1Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili0-2FC Gareji

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Merani Martvili 1454 · FC Gareji 1502

	Merani Martvili	Draw	FC Gareji
Our model	39%	32%	29%
Market	41%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Gareji (rating 1454 vs 1502).
H2H favours FC Gareji: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Merani Martvili	FC Gareji
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	1.5 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:24 +21’	2.20	3.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Merani Martvili 1–0–5 FC Gareji

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	1-0 HT 0-0	Merani Martvili
03/04/26 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Gareji
27/10/23 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	6-1 HT 3-0	Merani Martvili
18/08/23 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	1-4 HT 0-2	FC Gareji
15/05/23 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	5-1 HT 5-0	Merani Martvili
19/03/23 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Gareji

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	22	12	7	3	27	16	43
2	FC Telavi	22	11	7	4	24	16	40
3	SFC Shturmi	22	8	9	5	20	16	33
4	Merani Martvili	22	8	7	7	24	23	31
5	Aragvi Dusheti	22	9	4	9	23	27	31
6	FC Sioni Bolnisi	22	7	7	8	27	25	28
7	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	22	7	7	8	25	28	28
8	FC Samtredia	22	7	4	11	31	38	25
9	FC Gori	22	4	7	11	17	27	19
10	Kolkheti Poti	22	4	7	11	28	30	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Merani Martvili	FC Gareji
FC Telavi	0-1 L	0-0 D
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	0-0 D	1-2 L
SFC Shturmi	1-2 L	0-0 D
FC Gori	0-2 L	3-1 W
FC Samtredia	2-1 W	3-2 W
FC Sioni Bolnisi	0-2 L	1-1 D
Aragvi Dusheti	1-1 D	0-2 L
Kolkheti Poti	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Gareji (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Merani Martvili

DLWDLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
15/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
08/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
22/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
17/06	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
13/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
29/05	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
24/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
20/05	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
16/05	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

FC Gareji

DWDWWDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
22/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
17/06	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
13/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
30/05	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	2-0	3-2	4	8	W
24/05	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
20/05	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
16/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Merani Martvili vs FC Gareji?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Merani Martvili win (40%). Probabilities: Merani Martvili 40%, draw 30%, FC Gareji 30%.

How many goals are expected in Merani Martvili vs FC Gareji?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Merani Martvili 1.15 · FC Gareji 0.96), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Merani Martvili vs FC Gareji?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.