Football · Georgia First League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC Samtredia vs FC Sioni Bolnisi

Team pages: FC Samtredia · FC Sioni Bolnisi

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

FC Samtredia2.12

FC Sioni Bolnisi1.14

1X2

58% 23% 18%

FC Samtredia Draw FC Sioni Bolnisi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Samtredia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Sioni Bolnisi 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDDLL

Head-to-head

FC Samtredia 3–1–2 FC Sioni Bolnisi (6 last)

FC Sioni Bolnisi3-2FC Samtredia
FC Samtredia2-1FC Sioni Bolnisi
FC Sioni Bolnisi3-0FC Samtredia
FC Samtredia2-1FC Sioni Bolnisi
FC Sioni Bolnisi0-3FC Samtredia
FC Samtredia0-0FC Sioni Bolnisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Samtredia 1560 · FC Sioni Bolnisi 1461

	FC Samtredia	Draw	FC Sioni Bolnisi
Our model	59%	22%	19%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Samtredia (rating 1560 vs 1461).
H2H favours FC Samtredia: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Samtredia	FC Sioni Bolnisi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	1.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.70

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.55▼	Bet365 1.55
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 4.02
2	3.80 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.48 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:27 +13’	1.73	3.60	3.80
10:22 +21’	1.55▼	3.70▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:16 +27’	1.44	3.99	5.44
12:51 +36’	1.44▼	4.02▲	5.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Samtredia 3–1–2 FC Sioni Bolnisi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/06/26 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Samtredia
02/05/26 Georgia First League	FC Samtredia	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Sioni Bolnisi
11/04/26 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Samtredia
26/10/25 Georgia First League	FC Samtredia	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Sioni Bolnisi
31/08/25 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Samtredia
15/05/25 Georgia First League	FC Samtredia	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Sioni Bolnisi

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	27	14	8	5	35	28	50
2	FC Telavi	27	11	10	6	29	25	43
3	SFC Shturmi	27	11	10	6	29	23	43
4	Merani Martvili	27	10	7	10	30	34	37
5	FC Samtredia	27	11	4	12	48	40	37
6	Aragvi Dusheti	27	10	5	12	30	37	35
7	FC Sioni Bolnisi	27	8	9	10	35	34	33
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	27	8	8	11	29	37	32
9	Kolkheti Poti	27	6	10	11	34	33	28
10	FC Gori	27	6	9	12	27	35	27

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Samtredia	FC Sioni Bolnisi
Merani Martvili	5-0 W	1-2 L
Kolkheti Poti	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Gareji	6-1 W	3-3 D
FC Telavi	3-0 W	2-1 W
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	3-0 W	1-0 W
SFC Shturmi	1-0 W	0-1 L
FC Gori	1-0 W	1-4 L
Aragvi Dusheti	4-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Samtredia (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Samtredia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	5-0	5-0	–	–	W
16/09	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
12/09	FC Gareji Georgia First League	3-1	6-1	8	5	W
07/09	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	3-0	2	10	W
28/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
22/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
15/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
08/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-1	4-2	1	4	W
22/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
17/06	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	1-2	3	6	L

FC Sioni Bolnisi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
16/09	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
12/09	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	FC Gareji Georgia First League	1-1	3-3	5	6	D
29/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
22/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
15/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
08/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	1-4	4	2	L
22/06	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
17/06	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-2	2-3	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Samtredia vs FC Sioni Bolnisi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Samtredia win (58%). Probabilities: FC Samtredia 58%, draw 23%, FC Sioni Bolnisi 18%.

How many goals are expected in FC Samtredia vs FC Sioni Bolnisi?

The model expects 3.26 goals (FC Samtredia 2.12 · FC Sioni Bolnisi 1.14), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Samtredia vs FC Sioni Bolnisi?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.