Football · Georgia First League · 17/10, 13:30

Prediction: FC Gareji vs FC Telavi

Team pages: FC Gareji · FC Telavi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

FC Gareji1.16

FC Telavi1.37

1X2

31% 29% 41%

FC Gareji Draw FC Telavi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gareji 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWDLWLL

FC Telavi 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLDDDW

Head-to-head

FC Gareji 1–5–0 FC Telavi (6 last)

FC Telavi0-0FC Gareji
FC Gareji2-0FC Telavi
FC Telavi0-0FC Gareji
FC Gareji3-3FC Telavi
FC Telavi0-0FC Gareji
FC Gareji0-0FC Telavi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gareji 1467 · FC Telavi 1495

	FC Gareji	Draw	FC Telavi
Our model	30%	29%	40%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gareji	FC Telavi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.9	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 4.04 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.48
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:35 +33’	2.90	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:31 +36’	3.47	3.26	1.88
09:04 +5’	3.73▲	3.35▲	1.79▼
09:32 +35’	3.72▼	3.36▲	1.79
11:17 +7’	4.04▲	3.48▲	1.69▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gareji 1–5–0 FC Telavi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Georgia First League	FC Telavi	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Gareji
06/05/26 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Telavi
07/03/26 Georgia First League	FC Telavi	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Gareji
21/11/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gareji	3-3 HT 2-2	FC Telavi
13/09/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Telavi	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Gareji
16/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gareji	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Telavi

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	28	14	8	6	35	29	50
2	FC Telavi	28	12	10	6	33	26	46
3	SFC Shturmi	28	12	10	6	31	23	46
4	FC Samtredia	28	12	4	12	51	40	40
5	Merani Martvili	28	10	7	11	31	36	37
6	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	28	9	8	11	30	37	35
7	Aragvi Dusheti	28	10	5	13	31	41	35
8	FC Sioni Bolnisi	28	8	9	11	35	37	33
9	FC Gori	28	7	9	12	29	36	30
10	Kolkheti Poti	28	6	10	12	34	35	28

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gareji	FC Telavi
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	0-1 L	1-1 D
SFC Shturmi	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Gori	2-1 W	2-2 D
FC Samtredia	1-6 L	0-3 L
FC Sioni Bolnisi	3-3 D	1-2 L
Merani Martvili	2-1 W	1-0 W
Kolkheti Poti	3-2 W	1-1 D
Aragvi Dusheti	0-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Telavi (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gareji

LDLWWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
16/09	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
12/09	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-3	1-6	2	5	L
06/09	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	3-3	3	6	D
29/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
22/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
22/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	4	L

FC Telavi

WDDWLLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	3-0	4-1	4	2	W
20/09	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/09	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	2-2	5	6	D
07/09	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-0	0-3	8	10	L
29/08	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
22/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
15/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
08/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/06	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gareji vs FC Telavi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Telavi win (41%). Probabilities: FC Gareji 31%, draw 29%, FC Telavi 41%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gareji vs FC Telavi?

The model expects 2.53 goals (FC Gareji 1.16 · FC Telavi 1.37), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gareji vs FC Telavi?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.